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Energy market trends in early January 2025: Brent oil rises, TTF gas declines and CO2 allowances fluctuate

In the second week of January, Brent oil futures for the Front Month in the ICE market experienced price increases in most sessions, reaching a weekly maximum settlement price of $79.76 per barrel on Friday, January 10. This represented a 4.2% increase from the previous Friday and the highest price since October 8, 2024. Despite the strong dollar and negative economic news from Germany and the United States, which kept prices below $77 per barrel for much of the week, higher demand due to cold temperatures and the prospect of further sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil drove prices above $79 by week’s end.

Meanwhile, TTF gas futures for the Front Month in the ICE market saw more fluctuation. On January 7, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €47.47 per MWh, but prices fell over the next few days, hitting their weekly minimum of €44.99 per MWh on January 9. This price was the lowest since December 21, 2024. On Friday, January 10, prices inched up slightly to €45.01 per MWh, still 9.1% lower than the previous Friday. The decline was influenced by forecasts of milder temperatures, though European reserve levels and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict could support price recovery in the coming weeks.

In the EEX market, CO2 emission allowance futures for the December 2025 reference contract saw a mixed performance. After starting the week with price declines, they hit their weekly minimum settlement price of €72.17 per tonne on January 8. Prices rebounded, reaching a weekly maximum settlement of €74.85 per tonne on January 10, although this was still 1.4% lower than the previous Friday. Overall, the weekly average for CO2 emission allowances remained similar to the prior week.

These developments in the energy markets highlight the complex interplay of factors, including weather, economic trends, and geopolitical events, that are driving prices in early January, AleaSoft reports.

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