In the Southeast European (SEE) electricity markets, prices experienced a significant decline in Week 15 of 2026, following a period of elevated costs. This reduction was primarily attributed to decreased demand during the Orthodox Easter holiday, increased solar energy generation, and a softening of both gas and CO₂ prices. The most substantial price decreases were observed in Bulgaria, which saw a drop of 24.6%, followed by Greece at 23.5% and Romania at 22.8%. Other markets also reported double-digit declines, including Croatia (-20.3%), Serbia (-19.3%), and Hungary (-18.6%). Conversely, Türkiye exhibited a notable increase of 28.9%, indicating localized supply-demand challenges.
During this week, the majority of SEE markets traded below €100/MWh, with prices fluctuating between approximately €25/MWh and €120/MWh. Türkiye recorded the lowest weekly average at €24.89/MWh, while Greece’s price fell to €84.69/MWh after a weekly decline of 5.77%. Italy remained the highest-priced market at €119.89/MWh despite an 11.94% decrease, followed closely by Hungary at €92.19/MWh. Daily trading patterns indicated that most markets peaked on April 10, while the lowest prices were noted on April 6. A broader bearish trend was observed across Europe as well, influenced by weaker demand and higher solar output; France led the declines with a drop of 51.8%, while Spain and Portugal saw sharp increases of 194% and 182%, respectively.
As Week 15 concluded, wholesale electricity prices began to rebound in several SEE markets, with Day-Ahead prices rising towards €125–146/MWh, signaling potential tightening fundamentals ahead. The market remains sensitive to fluctuations in weather patterns, renewable energy output, and cross-border electricity flows.
The overall electricity demand across SEE fell by 6.77% week-on-week due to the Easter holiday timing on April 12, with Greece experiencing the most significant drop at 13.9%. Other notable reductions were seen in Serbia (-12.9%), Bulgaria (-12.6%), and Croatia (-17%). Larger systems like Italy and Romania also reported decreases of 9.5% and 9.3%, respectively; however, Türkiye’s demand remained relatively stable with only a slight decrease of 1.3% due to differing holiday schedules.
On the supply side, total variable renewable energy (RES) output saw a decline of 6.6%, masking significant internal shifts within the sector. Wind generation plummeted by 39.8%, particularly in Greece and Italy where it dropped over 60%. Conversely, solar generation surged by 41.8%, bolstered by improved irradiance conditions and longer daylight hours; Türkiye recorded an impressive growth rate of 218% in solar output while Greece increased by 33.8%. Overall RES output in Türkiye rose by 9.3%, as gains from solar compensated for weaker wind performance.
Hydropower production increased by 4.8%, primarily driven by strong performances in Italy (+20.2%) and Greece (+22.7%). Romania maintained stable hydropower output at +8.3%, while Serbia experienced a notable decline of -59.3% due to localized conditions affecting production levels.
Thermal generation across the region fell by an average of 8.3%, with gas-fired output decreasing significantly by 12%. Major reductions were noted in Greece (-24.5%), Romania (-33.2%), Hungary (-23%), and Serbia (-27%). In contrast, Türkiye increased its thermal generation by 8.3%, mainly through higher gas-fired production.
Cross-border electricity flows decreased by approximately 8.3% compared to the previous week as regional systems adjusted towards balance following recent fluctuations in demand and supply dynamics. Bulgaria significantly ramped up its exports (+80%), while Romania transitioned from being an importer to an exporter due to improved hydro output paired with reduced domestic consumption levels.
The developments observed during Week 15 illustrate a temporary easing phase within SEE power markets driven largely by seasonal demand shifts coupled with favorable renewable energy conditions and decreasing fuel costs; however, early signs indicate that market volatility may return as underlying fundamentals tighten once again.
