Daily capacity auctions during Q2 2026 showed that market participants were assigning greater value to selected Southeast European electricity corridors even as total Western Balkan–EU trade declined.
The highest average export-direction auction values were recorded on Montenegro–Italy and Serbia–Hungary. Montenegro-to-Italy capacity averaged around €8.59/MWh, while Serbia-to-Hungary reached approximately €6.95/MWh. These prices reflected persistent premiums in Italy and Hungary, limited transmission availability and strong competition for access.
Serbia-to-Romania also increased from a low base. By contrast, the principal value on the North Macedonia–Greece and Serbia–Bulgaria borders appeared in the import direction, consistent with the seasonal return of power flows from EU markets into the Western Balkans.
Capacity prices normally reflect expected day-ahead arbitrage. They are also shaped by available margins, competition, network outages and traders’ expectations at the time of bidding. Q2 showed that short-term corridor value could strengthen even when annual capacity auctions had previously signalled weaker confidence.
The Serbia–Hungary route benefited from both the Hungarian price premium and potential onward demand from Ukraine. Montenegro–Italy retained value because of the large Italian spread and restricted availability of the submarine link.
The different signals across borders indicate that Southeast Europe is no longer functioning as one broad arbitrage zone. Corridor-specific fundamentals are becoming more important. The value of a transmission right depends on the carbon status of the exported electricity, destination demand, physical network conditions and the likelihood that the route can support actual delivery.
For traders, this increases the importance of hourly and directional analysis. Quarterly average spreads can conceal high-value scarcity periods. Capacity must be assessed against the expected generation profile, balancing risk and CBAM exposure of the underlying supply.
For project developers, the auction data influence PPA pricing. A wind project targeting Hungary or Italy must include not only the wholesale benchmark but also the cost and availability of cross-border rights.
The emerging map places the highest value on corridors linked to structurally higher-priced markets and new demand centres. Serbia–Hungary and Montenegro–Italy sit at the centre of that structure, while Greece is becoming a source of lower-carbon electricity for neighbouring systems.
