Southeast Europe’s thermal generation mix shifted noticeably toward coal and lignite in Week 34, providing another indication that elevated gas prices are reshaping the short-term economics of conventional power generation across the region.
Total thermal electricity generation across the monitored markets declined by 13.07% compared with Week 30, falling from 7,294.50 GWh to 6,341.11 GWh. The reduction was concentrated in gas-fired generation, which dropped 30.32% to 2,718.16 GWh, while coal and lignite generation increased by 6.76%.
The shift is particularly significant given developments in the European gas market. TTF prices remained above €60/MWh throughout the week, reaching €65.87/MWh on 21 August. At such fuel-price levels, the cost of generating electricity from gas rises substantially, improving the relative short-term competitiveness of other available thermal technologies.
The data do not point to a uniform return to coal across Southeast Europe. Instead, Week 34 indicates that existing coal and lignite capacity regained part of its short-term dispatch advantage as gas became more expensive. However, the increase in solid-fuel generation was not large enough to offset the overall decline in thermal output.
Generation trends varied significantly between individual markets. Romania recorded a 45.86% increase in thermal generation, while Hungary posted a 149.48% rise. Serbia’s thermal output increased by 12.45%, Croatia’s by 19.30% and Greece’s by 7.45%. Türkiye, in contrast, recorded a 26.16% decline, while Italy’s thermal generation fell 12.90%. Hungary’s sharp increase was largely driven by higher gas-fired generation, demonstrating how country-specific generation availability can override broader regional fuel-cost trends.
The composition of the thermal fleet is increasingly important for electricity-market pricing because it influences both marginal generation costs and the system’s ability to respond to changes in renewable output. If higher-cost gas generation is displaced by coal and lignite during periods of normal demand, gas-fired plants may increasingly be reserved for tighter and higher-value hours, potentially contributing to wider intraday price spreads.
Week 34 therefore points toward a more segmented thermal generation stack across Southeast Europe. Coal and lignite can regain market share when gas prices rise sufficiently, while gas-fired generation continues to provide value through its flexibility and ability to respond when renewable production or other available capacity falls short.
The developments should not be interpreted as evidence of a structural reversal of the region’s energy transition. Instead, they demonstrate how short-term power-market dispatch remains highly sensitive to relative fuel costs and generation availability. When gas prices rise sharply, existing coal and lignite plants can regain dispatch relevance rapidly, particularly in markets where such capacity remains operational and able to respond to changing market conditions.
