Electricity markets in Southeast Europe traded in mixed directions for Wednesday delivery, while Central European hubs maintained strong price support above €125/MWh. Greece and parts of the southern Balkans saw prices remain under pressure from renewable generation and lower marginal costs. Regional demand rose, but falling solar and wind output tightened supply-demand balances and limited broader declines.
Day-ahead settlements across HUPX, BSP, CROPEX, OPCOM and SEEPEX
On HUPX, Hungary’s day-ahead market settled at €126.90/MWh, down marginally versus the previous session. Slovenia’s BSP exchange cleared at €127.60/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX closed at €127.45/MWh, keeping prices converged with Hungary. Romania’s OPCOM followed at €125.04/MWh, reflecting integration with Central European fundamentals.
Serbia’s SEEPEX settled at €115.78/MWh, remaining below neighbouring EU markets but above southern Balkan exchanges. Greece’s HENEX recorded the lowest level in the region at €104.15/MWh. Bulgaria’s IBEX cleared at €112.15/MWh.
Narrower balance as demand rises and generation slips
The regional power balance tightened as electricity consumption increased to about 29.7 GW, up by 930 MW day-on-day. At the same time, total generation declined by nearly 1 GW, supporting wholesale price levels. Solar output fell by 436 MW, and wind production dropped by 322 MW.
Hydro generation softened slightly, while remaining the region’s largest technology alongside solar. Hydropower and solar each accounted for roughly 24% of regional electricity generation. Coal contributed 16%, with gas and nuclear each at 15%.
Lower net imports into SEE-Hungary and continued cross-border flows
Net imports represented only 2% of the overall supply mix, indicating continued internal balancing despite weaker renewable output. Total net imports into the SEE-Hungary region fell from 596 MW to 306 MW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary dropped from 1,819 MW to 1,098 MW.
Commercial flow data showed exports from Romania into Hungary, strong Bulgarian exports toward Serbia and North Macedonia, and ongoing Slovenian exports into Italy. The pattern points to Hungary functioning as a central balancing hub within the region’s trade flows.
Intraday volatility tied to midday solar weakness and evening peaks
Intraday price curves across HUPX, SEEPEX, OPCOM and BSP reflected pronounced solar-driven volatility. Prices weakened during midday hours before rising sharply during the evening ramp period. Peak prices generally appeared around hour 21.
Around hour 21, reduced solar output combined with strong residential demand pushed values toward €180-203/MWh across several markets. Midday troughs stayed substantially lower, widening daily spreads that can be relevant for battery storage operators and flexible generation assets.
Forward signals: gas, carbon and Week-25 power ease alongside weather outlook
Ahead on forward commodity markets, Austrian CEGH gas eased to €50.28/MWh. EUA carbon allowances fell to €76.15/t. German Week-25 power declined to €108.50/MWh, while Hungarian Week-25 contracts slipped to €113.00/MWh.
Southeast Europe temperature forecast and Serbia’s relative pricing spread
Weather forecasts indicate temperatures across Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovenia are expected to decline materially during the second half of the week. Serbian temperatures are forecast to fall from around 24°C to below 19°C. The change is expected to reduce cooling demand and affect thermal generation needs and import pressure.
