Bulgaria became a net electricity importer in the week ended November 1, after previously being a net exporter of electricity. Higher consumption and falling wind and solar generation added pressure to the country’s electricity balance, according to the latest regional analysis by the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe (IENE).
Net trade swung by 96.29 GWh, from exports of 21.39 GWh in the previous week to imports of 74.90 GWh. Electricity demand rose by 9.36%, the largest weekly increase among the eight markets monitored, while variable renewable generation fell by 38.5%. Thermal generation increased by 8.94% and hydropower output by 19.59%, but those gains did not fully offset stronger demand and lower wind and solar production.
Bulgaria’s average day-ahead electricity price rose by about 11% to €284.10/MWh, approaching levels in Romania, Serbia and Hungary. The change in the country’s trade balance is relevant to neighbouring electricity markets: Bulgaria shifted from a potential source of surplus power to an additional source of regional import demand.
Trade balance and supply conditions
The weekly net-import figure does not identify specific cross-border trading routes or the hours when supply was tightest, and it does not necessarily indicate a shortage of domestic generating capacity. The figures show how weather-dependent renewable generation and changes in electricity consumption can quickly alter national trade positions, particularly when wholesale prices are also elevated in neighbouring markets.
