Bulgaria shifted from a net electricity exporter to a net importer in the week ended November 1, as rising consumption and falling wind and solar generation put additional pressure on its domestic electricity balance. The development was highlighted in the latest regional electricity analysis by the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe (IENE).
The country’s net trade position reversed sharply, moving from net exports of 21.39 GWh in the previous week to net imports of 74.90 GWh, representing a swing of 96.29 GWh. Electricity demand increased by 9.36%, the strongest weekly rise among the eight markets monitored, while variable renewable generation fell by 38.5%. Thermal generation increased by 8.94% and hydropower output rose by 19.59%, but the additional production was insufficient to offset stronger consumption and weaker wind and solar output.
Bulgaria’s average day-ahead electricity price also increased by approximately 11% to €284.10/MWh, bringing it closer to price levels recorded in Romania, Serbia and Hungary. The reversal in its trade balance is particularly significant for neighbouring electricity markets, as Bulgaria shifted from a potential source of surplus electricity to an additional contributor to regional import demand.
However, the weekly net-import position does not identify the specific cross-border trading routes or the hours when supply conditions were tightest. Nor does it necessarily indicate a shortage of domestic generating capacity. Nevertheless, the figures illustrate how weather-dependent renewable generation and changing electricity consumption can rapidly reshape national power trade positions, particularly when neighbouring markets are also facing elevated wholesale electricity prices.
