Bulgaria’s Commission for Energy and Water Regulation (KEVR) has approved a 5.84% increase in the wholesale natural gas price for July 2026. The decision follows a proposal submitted by the state-owned supplier Bulgargaz in mid-June. Even after the adjustment, the regulated wholesale gas price is set at 37.7 euros/MWh, excluding VAT and excise duty.
In June, KEVR had approved a 1% decrease in the wholesale gas price. The July approval therefore comes after a period of mild downward correction. The latest move keeps the regulated pricing framework within a relatively contained adjustment range.
Discount versus TTF futures after July approval
KEVR said the approved Bulgarian price remains about 4 euros/MWh below July futures at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF). TTF prices have recently been trading between 41 and 42 euros/MWh. This places Bulgaria’s regulated level at a discount relative to the broader European benchmark market.
Gas Hub Balkan prices in Bulgaria have been broadly aligned with European market movements. The hub has traded within a similar band of 39 to 42 euros/MWh. This indicates that, alongside regulation, Bulgarian hub pricing continues to track regional trends.
Bulgargaz outlook for regulated pricing through 2026
Bulgargaz expects the regulated gas price to stay below 40 euros/MWh for the remainder of 2026. The company links the outlook to a recent decline in international oil and gas prices. It also cites easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as a factor behind softer global energy market conditions.
If market conditions remain stable, Bulgargaz expects the regulated pricing level to continue offering a cost advantage for households and businesses versus prevailing wholesale prices across European gas hubs. The expectation is tied to maintaining the discount relative to wholesale benchmarks.
