Brent oil futures for the front month on the ICE market reached a weekly high of $74.78 per barrel on Monday, February 24. However, prices declined in the following days, hitting a weekly low of $72.53 per barrel on February 26—the lowest level since December 11, 2024, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Although prices rebounded after this dip, they fell again by Friday, February 28, settling at $73.18 per barrel, marking a 1.7% decline from the previous Friday.
Several factors influenced the fluctuations in Brent oil prices:
- Downward pressure: Concerns over global oil demand, particularly due to U.S. tariff policies, along with the expectation of increased Iraqi oil supply, contributed to price declines.
- Upward pressure: Difficulties in Ukraine peace negotiations, the expiration of Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, and new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil supported price recovery.
TTF gas futures for the front month on the ICE market followed a similar trend. Prices peaked at €47.14/MWh on Monday, February 24, before falling to a weekly low of €41.34/MWh on February 26—the lowest since December 19, 2024. However, on February 27, prices rebounded sharply by 8.7%, pushing settlement prices above €44/MWh for the final sessions of the week. By Friday, February 28, the settlement price stood at €44.32/MWh, still 6.1% lower than the previous Friday.
Key drivers of TTF gas price movements included:
- Early-week declines: Market expectations of a Ukraine peace agreement that could allow for increased Russian gas flows to Europe.
- Late-week rebound: Forecasts of cold temperatures increasing demand, low European gas reserves, and diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine contributed to renewed upward pressure.
CO2 emission allowance futures for December 2025 on the EEX market peaked at €73.66 per ton on Monday, February 24. A downward trend dominated most of the week, culminating in a weekly low of €71.00 per ton on Friday, February 28. This represented a 3.9% drop from the previous Friday and was the lowest level since December 25, 2024, AleaSoft reports.
