In mid-March, the energy markets experienced significant fluctuations, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties. Brent crude oil futures on the ICE market surpassed the $100/bbl mark during the week of March 16 to March 20. The week began with prices at a low of $100.21/bbl on March 16, but they rapidly climbed to a high of $112.19/bbl by March 20. This increase of 8.8% from the previous week marks the highest levels seen since July 2022.
Despite efforts to stabilize prices, oil markets faced upward pressure primarily due to ongoing supply disruptions linked to geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the United States and Iran. Additionally, an agreement by Iraq to export oil through Turkey’s Ceyhan port provided temporary relief but could not offset the broader market dynamics influenced by the closure of vital shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Alongside oil price movements, TTF natural gas futures also saw notable increases during this period. Prices started at a weekly low of €50.89/MWh on March 16 and surged to a peak of €61.85/MWh on March 19, marking a significant rebound from earlier lows and representing an increase of 18% compared to the previous week. However, by March 20, prices retreated slightly to €59.26/MWh, reflecting ongoing volatility in the gas market.
The rise in natural gas prices can be attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have raised concerns over supply availability. Furthermore, European gas storage levels remain critically low, averaging below 30%, with some countries reporting levels below 25%. These factors are contributing to increased pressure on gas pricing in a region that is heavily reliant on stable supply chains.
<pMeanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 on the EEX market exhibited a downward trend for most of the week. Prices peaked at €69.02/t on March 16 but fell to a weekly low of €63.67/t by March 19—the lowest level since April 2025—before rebounding by 6.3% to close at €67.68/t. Despite this recovery, prices remained 2.2% lower than those recorded at the end of the previous week.
This week’s developments underscore a complex interplay between geopolitical factors, supply challenges, and inventory constraints across oil, gas, and carbon markets. As these dynamics evolve, stakeholders in energy markets must navigate an increasingly intricate landscape influenced by both regional conflicts and broader economic conditions.
