In the third week of May, European energy commodity markets recorded mixed and volatile price movements linked to changing geopolitical expectations, supply outlooks and seasonal demand conditions. Brent crude, TTF natural gas and EU carbon allowances each moved differently over the period. The ICE front-month Brent contract reached its weekly peak on Monday, May 18.
Brent crude: peak on May 18, decline to May 21 low
Brent futures rose to $112.10/bbl on Monday, May 18, before falling steadily during the rest of the week. The contract declined to a low of $102.58/bbl on Thursday, May 21. A mild rebound followed on Friday, with prices closing at $103.54/bbl.
The Friday close of $103.54/bbl marked a 5.2% decline versus the previous week. The downward pressure was associated with expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It also reflected potential recovery in global supply and improved diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran.
TTF gas: early strength then corrective drop
European TTF natural gas futures showed early-week strength followed by a corrective decline. Prices peaked on Tuesday, May 19 at €51.82/MWh, the highest level since early April. They then fell to a weekly low of €48.68/MWh on Friday, May 22.
The week ended with prices 3.0% lower than the previous Friday’s close. The decline was supported by reduced concerns over LNG supply disruptions. Weaker gas demand in Europe due to higher temperatures also eased upward pricing pressure in the second half of the week.
EEX carbon: December 2026 contract ends slightly higher
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 contract traded with a more stable but slightly bullish pattern on the EEX market. Prices moved within a narrow range during the week, dipping to €74.95/t on Thursday, May 21. They then rebounded to a weekly high of €76.94/t on Friday, May 22.
The contract finished 1.7% higher than the previous week’s level. Despite short-term fluctuations, carbon prices were described as remaining supported by underlying market expectations and structural emissions demand. AleaSoft reports .
