Day-ahead electricity prices for delivery on Wednesday, 29 July showed a sharp split across Southeast Europe. Western systems exposed to drought moved higher, while Bulgaria and Italy weakened. The regional pattern resulted in different principal exchange levels across multiple markets.
Highest prices recorded in Serbia and Montenegro
Serbia posted the region’s highest principal exchange price at €145.13/MWh, up €28.59/MWh or 24.5% from Tuesday. Montenegro followed at €143.21/MWh, with Slovenia at €141.59/MWh and Croatia at €138.73/MWh. Austria settled close to Croatia at €138.18/MWh.
Romania increased by almost 18% to €132.87/MWh, marginally above Hungary’s €132.34/MWh. Greece strengthened to €125.60/MWh, while North Macedonia cleared at €114.71/MWh. The spread across these markets reflected the day-ahead fragmentation for 29 July.
Bulgaria and Italy weaken; spreads widen versus Serbia
Bulgaria moved against the regional trend, falling by €7.28/MWh to €101.81/MWh. This created a €43.32/MWh spread between Serbia and Bulgaria and a €41.40/MWh spread between Montenegro and Bulgaria. Italy was cheaper still at €98.06/MWh, reversing its usual role as a premium destination for Balkan exports.
The price map indicated that immediate scarcity was no longer concentrated in Hungary or Italy. Higher marginal values were carried by Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia, consistent with weaker hydropower, constraints on thermal generation, and the cost of obtaining replacement electricity through congested corridors.
Nuclear outage, hydrology and fuel logistics affect marginal pricing
Romania’s increase included the loss of approximately 700 MW from Cernavodă Unit 1. Serbia’s pricing was shaped by exceptionally poor Danube hydrology, with Đerdap 1 producing about 5,000 MWh a day, roughly one-third of its normal daily output. Low river levels also reduced cooling availability at the Kostolac coal complex.
The same hydrological conditions constrained fuel movement by barge to the Kostolac complex, affecting operational inputs for thermal generation. Together with corridor constraints referenced in the price map, these factors contributed to the higher marginal values recorded in parts of the region.
Bulgaria’s generation rises; exports remain positive but lower than last year
Bulgaria’s lower price did not indicate weakness in its domestic market conditions. Electricity production between 1 January and 26 July rose by 5.61% to 25.02 TWh, while consumption increased faster by 6.54% to 23.56 TWh. Bulgaria retained a positive export balance of 1.46 TWh, compared with 1.57 TWh a year earlier.
