Power prices surged across Southeast Europe on 10 August as the return of weekday demand, weaker wind generation and constrained cross-border capacity tightened regional balances.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price rose by €59.2/MWh to €156.57/MWh—an increase of approximately 61% from Sunday. Romania closely followed at €155.75/MWh, while Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia and Austria all settled between €153 and €154/MWh.
Serbia recorded the largest daily increase, with SEEPEX gaining €70.5/MWh to €153.32/MWh.
The results created three distinct pricing zones. Hungary and the northern-central SEE markets formed a tightly coupled cluster around €153–157/MWh. Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro and North Macedonia occupied a middle tier between €131 and €141/MWh. Greece remained the region’s cheapest market at €103.99/MWh, while Italy reached the daily maximum of €178.89/MWh.
These differences point to significant congestion. Hungary traded at premiums of €38.66/MWh to Germany and €52.57/MWh to Greece, indicating that cheaper electricity available outside the central SEE cluster could not fully reach the higher-priced markets.
Evening scarcity dominates hourly trading
The Hungarian hourly profile showed a pronounced solar-driven “duck curve.” HUPX fell to its daily minimum of €82.9/MWh at noon before climbing to €269.1/MWh at 20:00, producing an intraday range of more than €186/MWh.
Hungary’s peak-load average of €142.5/MWh was notably lower than its €170.6/MWh off-peak average. Strong solar generation suppressed prices during the conventional daytime peak period, while the evening decline in photovoltaic output created the day’s tightest conditions.
Similar patterns appeared elsewhere. Romania reached a maximum of €268.6/MWh at 20:00, while Serbia peaked at €302/MWh at 21:00. Greece, by contrast, recorded zero prices during the late morning before rising to €211.5/MWh at 23:00.
The results suggest that evening delivery hours—not daily baseload—carry the greatest short-term price and imbalance risk.
Demand rebound outweighs renewable growth
Regional electricity consumption was forecast to rise by 4,031 MW from Sunday to 33,432 MW as commercial and industrial demand returned after the weekend.
Solar production increased by a substantial 3,743 MW, but forecast wind generation declined by 830 MW. After adjusting demand for solar and wind output, the system’s residual requirement increased by approximately 1,118 MW.
Net imports rose by only 294 MW, leaving roughly 824 MW of additional demand to be covered by thermal, hydro, nuclear or other dispatchable generation.
Hungary remained particularly dependent on neighboring systems, with average net imports of 1,984 MW. Romania moved from a 698 MW net export position on Sunday to a 208 MW net import position on Monday. Bulgaria, meanwhile, more than doubled its net exports to 1,348 MW, including strong deliveries toward Romania.
Across the wider region, imports from Austria and Slovakia reached 2,219 MW. At the same time, 1,056 MW continued to flow toward Italy, where prices remained the highest in the surveyed markets.
Spot rally not confirmed by fuels
Fuel and emissions markets offered little evidence of a broader energy-price rally. Austrian CEGH gas was virtually unchanged at €56.60/MWh, EU carbon allowances were flat at €83.29 per tonne, and coal contracts posted only modest gains.
Hungarian forward power also softened at the front of the curve. Week 33 fell by €9/MWh to €165.50/MWh, while Week 34 and September declined slightly to €161/MWh and €163/MWh respectively.
Nevertheless, Hungary retained sizeable premiums to Germany: €37/MWh for Week 33, €36/MWh for Week 34 and €32/MWh for September. The forward premium narrowed to €20.50/MWh at the calendar horizon, suggesting that traders see the most acute regional tightness as a near-term issue.
The spot rally therefore appears to be primarily power-system specific, reflecting the weekday demand rebound, lower wind availability and constrained transmission rather than a sustained increase in generation costs.
Near-term attention will remain focused on the evening hours, wind forecast revisions and flows between Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. Low Danube levels and their possible effect on nuclear and hydro availability add another source of volatility. Any improvement in wind generation or cross-border capacity could quickly narrow the elevated Hungarian premium, but until then, central SEE evening prices remain exposed to further scarcity spikes.
