In the latest developments in the European gas market, TTF gas futures demonstrated notable volatility during Week 05, with prices reaching multi-month highs before a subsequent retraction. Front-month contracts approached €40/MWh, a level not observed since mid-2025, before settling back into the mid-€30 range. This surge was primarily driven by low underground gas storage levels, which raised alarms over potential rapid depletion rates due to cold weather risks and adjustments to Norwegian maintenance schedules. The retreat in prices was attributed to milder weather forecasts and a reduction in global LNG supply pressures.
For March 2026 delivery, TTF gas futures on the ICE market showed continued strength throughout Week 05 (26 January–1 February 2026). The front-month contract averaged €37.97/MWh during this period. It initially opened at €37.40/MWh on 26 January, dipped slightly to the same price on 28 January—marking the week’s lowest settlement—before rebounding to €38.59/MWh on 29 January (+4.1%). On Friday, 30 January, prices surged to €39.29/MWh (+1.8%), establishing the highest settlement price for that week.
As of 26 January, European gas storage levels had fallen to 44% of total capacity, according to data from AGSI. This marked the lowest level recorded for this time of year since 2022 when similar circumstances arose amid efforts to replace Russian gas supplies. Current storage levels remain significantly below the ten-year average of 58%. If current trends persist, analysts predict storage could decline to as low as 30% by the end of March. To restore stocks to the previously observed level of 83% at the start of last winter, Europe would need to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas into its reserves.
While pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan continue to provide essential baseline support for European gas needs, challenges remain significant regarding the replenishment of underground storage ahead of next winter.
The European Union is currently facing a deficit of around 130 full-volume gas shipments compared to last year. As of 29 January, total storage capacity stood at 490 terawatt-hours (TWh), with stockpiles at just 43% capacity—the lowest seasonal level since the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Furthermore, gas stock declines have been more pronounced than typical leading up to mid-January, particularly in Germany. This trend has been exacerbated by government policies that have resulted in lower storage levels compared to previous years, as noted by analysts from Argus.
