risk map

Southeast European electricity prices could ease in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 if nuclear capacity returns and hydro inflows improve. Gas costs and transmission constraints are expected to sustain premiums during tight periods.

Cernavodă Unit 1 is scheduled to resynchronise on 6 November after more than three months offline. Its availability, alongside other reactor restarts and outages, will shape winter import needs and power prices across Southeast Europe.

Drought is reducing hydroelectric output and constraining nuclear generation across the Balkans, increasing exposure to electricity imports. The pressure highlights the role of diversified generation, storage and interconnection.

Western Balkan electricity trade with the European Union recovered from the second quarter but remained below year-earlier levels. Wider price spreads, weaker convergence and CBAM costs are complicating cross-border sales.

Romania imported electricity for 21 of 24 hours on 3 November despite renewables supplying around two-thirds of generation. Reactor restart prospects and the cost and timing of grid connections will shape supply and new project economics.