Serbia’s long-term natural gas strategy has entered a period of uncertainty, prompting Belgrade to prioritize extending its current supply arrangement with Russia’s Gazprom rather than securing a new multi-year agreement. According to Srbijagas Director Dušan Bajatović, the EU’s plan to gradually phase out imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG has fundamentally reshaped the negotiating landscape. As a result, Serbia now expects its existing contract to be prolonged only through the current heating season — and possibly for no more than a year. Bajatović added that once the temporary extension expires, negotiating conditions may become more favorable for discussing a longer-term deal.
To mitigate potential supply risks, Srbijagas has already prepared several contingency scenarios. These include relying on substantial reserve volumes, sufficient to cover national consumption for around 70 days, and turning to spot-market purchases if necessary. Although Belgrade is treating all possibilities seriously, Bajatović said Russian officials continue to insist that interrupting deliveries to Serbia would be inconceivable.
Serbia’s present supply arrangement is based on a three-year contract signed in 2022 for up to 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Although the agreement formally expired in May, it has been extended multiple times — first through late September, then into October, and most recently until the end of December. Belgrade had initially hoped to negotiate a new three-year contract for 2.5 billion cubic meters per year, but developments in EU policy have complicated those efforts.
In October, the Council of the EU endorsed a proposal to introduce a phased ban on imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG beginning in January 2026. According to the proposal, existing short-term supply contracts may continue until mid-June 2026, while longer-term arrangements can stay in force until early 2028. The announcement triggered concerns in Serbia, where officials emphasized that the country relies heavily on Russian gas delivered through the TurkStream extension via Bulgaria. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos later clarified that the regulation would not restrict the transit of Russian gas to Serbia.
President Aleksandar Vučić has suggested that Gazprom may prefer short-term extensions rather than concluding a new multi-year agreement, potentially to preserve negotiating leverage amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding NIS — the Serbian oil company indirectly controlled by Gazprom that is currently subject to U.S. sanctions. Bajatović, however, downplayed any direct connection, saying he does not see an immediate link between the two issues.
Serbia expects to consume around 2.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas this year. In addition to Russian volumes, the country supplements its supply with approximately 400 million cubic meters of Azeri gas imported through the Bulgaria–Serbia interconnector.
