Hydropower production in Serbia has fallen to historically low levels as prolonged drought and extreme temperatures reduce river inflows. The impact limits the flexibility normally provided by the country’s Danube assets. Đerdap inflows have declined to approximately 1,500 cubic metres per second.
Within the Đerdap complex, Đerdap 1 is producing at around 20% of installed capacity, while Đerdap 2 is operating at roughly 30%. Comparable hydrological conditions were previously recorded in 2003 and 1985. Conditions on the Drina are somewhat better, although inflows remain below normal.
Peak balancing role affected by lower reservoir and run-of-river output
The loss of hydroelectric output affects the system because reservoir and run-of-river plants provide more than energy. They supply rapid-response capacity during morning and evening peaks. They also help balance solar production and reduce the need for high-priced imports.
The rehabilitation of the Bajina Bašta pumped-storage plant has improved operational flexibility. Reservoirs are around 75% full, enabling the facility to pump during lower-priced solar hours and generate during peak demand. Preserving that stored energy will become increasingly important if the drought continues into autumn.
Thermal generation constraints linked to Danube levels and lignite quality
Thermal generation is also affected by low water conditions. Some units at Kostolac have reduced output by approximately one-third because low Danube levels constrain cooling. The TENT complex continues operating with cooling water from the Sava, though low calorific value of domestic lignite remains a challenge.
Serbia has increased imports of higher-quality coal. Stockpiles stand at approximately 1.82 million tonnes, and the government aims to raise reserves above 2 million tonnes before winter.
Demand rise coincides with weaker hydro and tighter flexibility
Electricity consumption has climbed to 100–105 GWh per day, approaching the 110–115 GWh recorded during winter peaks. With heat-driven demand, weak hydro production, and constrained thermal flexibility, Serbia’s dependence on imports increases. The system is exposed to expensive evening-market prices.
