Southeast Europe entered the early summer electricity season with a market signal that looks increasingly important for traders, utilities and industrial buyers: higher demand no longer automatically means higher average power prices. In Week 24, regional electricity demand rose to 15.85 TWh, an increase of 692.9 GWh or 4.6% from the previous week, yet most SEE day-ahead markets moved lower.
The reason was not weak consumption. Italy added 319.8 GWh of demand, Türkiye added 246.7 GWh, and Greece increased consumption by 55.0 GWh, taking its weekly demand above 1.01 TWh. The shift was instead driven by stronger renewable generation, which expanded faster than load. Combined wind and solar output across the region rose to 3.64 TWh, up 518.6 GWh or 16.6% week on week. Wind generation increased 28.1% to 1.40 TWh, while solar rose 10.4% to 2.23 TWh.
That additional low-marginal-cost electricity softened prices in most markets. Serbia recorded the sharpest correction, with its weekly average price falling 21.5% to €78.22/MWh. Bulgaria declined 7.2% to €93.58/MWh, Croatia fell 7.3% to €92.02/MWh, Romania dropped 4.7% to €97.38/MWh, Hungary eased 4.3% to €98.71/MWh, and Italy slipped 3.8% while still remaining the regional premium market at €123.17/MWh. Greece was the exception, rising 2.6% to €91.53/MWh.
The softer price surface should not be confused with a fully comfortable system balance. Hydropower generation fell 7.5% to 3.70 TWh, removing 300.2 GWh of flexible supply. Thermal generation had to respond, rising 8.7% to 4.52 TWh. Coal and lignite output increased particularly sharply, up 24.4% to 2.14 TWh, while gas-fired generation fell 2.4% to 2.38 TWh.
The opening summer signal is therefore more nuanced than a simple renewable-led price decline. Solar and wind are increasingly strong enough to cap weekly averages, but hydro weakness and evening demand still keep thermal plants close to the margin. For buyers, the risk is moving from the weekly average to the hourly curve. For traders, the opportunity is shifting toward volatility, spreads and flexibility rather than a single directional view on regional demand.
