Italy remained the decisive price anchor for Southeast Europe in Week 24, keeping regional arbitrage alive even as most markets softened. The Italian day-ahead average fell by 3.8%, but at €123.17/MWh it remained far above Serbia at €78.22/MWh, Greece at €91.53/MWh, Croatia at €92.02/MWh, Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh and Hungary at €98.71/MWh.
The premium was supported by load. Italian electricity demand rose by 319.8 GWh, or 6.7%, to 5.12 TWh, the largest absolute increase among the analysed SEE markets. This demand growth directly translated into higher reliance on external supply. Italy’s net imports increased by 130.9 GWh, or 13.8%, reaching 1.08 TWh for the week.
Domestic generation also tightened. Italy recorded the largest increase in total thermal generation in the region, with output rising 191.1 GWh, or 17.6%. Both coal and gas-fired plants contributed, showing that imports alone were not enough to cover the higher summer load. This is the structure that keeps Italy expensive: high demand, import dependence, dispatchable generation needs and sensitivity to gas and LNG economics.
The gas side moved in the same direction. Italian LNG inflows rose to 3,803.52 GWh, up 34.11% week on week. That recovery reinforces Italy’s role as a combined power-and-gas demand centre rather than simply an electricity importer. When Italian power demand rises, it supports thermal dispatch, strengthens LNG pull and keeps regional power spreads open.
For Balkan exporters and renewable developers, Italy’s premium is commercially important. It creates a higher-value destination for surplus electricity and supports merchant optionality in regional projects. Yet that value is not automatic. Interconnector availability, congestion costs, balancing exposure and scheduling capability determine whether lower-priced power in surrounding markets can reach the Italian premium.
Italy’s role in SEE price formation is therefore structural rather than episodic. The country remains the market that absorbs regional surplus, sets the upper price reference and turns cross-border capacity into a financial asset. As summer demand builds, the Italian premium will continue to shape trading strategies from the Balkans to Central Europe.
