The SEE electricity market is entering summer with a widening divide between countries that still have export flexibility and countries where demand, imports and evening scarcity are pulling prices into a higher band. Week 25 showed that the region is no longer moving as one block. Italy and Hungary traded at the upper end of the regional curve, while Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia remained closer to the lower SEE cluster, even though some of them still recorded rising prices.
The most important signal came from Italy. The Italian market stayed the regional premium area, with weekly day-ahead prices at around €127.69/MWh, well above the main Balkan and Central European-linked SEE markets. The reason was not only fuel cost. Italy faced stronger demand, lower hydro and weaker wind conditions, forcing the system to lean more heavily on gas-fired generation and imports. That created a premium that continued to influence nearby markets through cross-border trading, even where domestic fundamentals looked softer.
Hungary also moved into a higher price band, with HUPX averaging around €109.16/MWh. Hungary’s rise matters because it is the bridge between SEE and Central Europe. Its price is shaped not only by domestic demand and imports, but by regional coupling, scarcity hours and flows from surrounding markets. Even when Hungary reduces net import exposure, it can still price higher if Central Europe is tight and evening demand is stronger.
This is where SEE market analysis becomes more complex. Lower gas prices did not automatically produce lower power prices. The region saw softer TTF gas, but electricity prices rose in Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania and Italy. That means the market was being priced by physical scarcity, hydro availability, wind output and peak-hour balancing needs rather than by fuel direction alone.
Croatia was another clear example of this trend. Demand rose, wind weakened and imports increased, pushing CROPEX above €100/MWh. Romania also moved higher despite lower demand, showing that hydro weakness and regional convergence can dominate domestic load signals.
By contrast, Greece and Bulgaria showed how stronger solar and export availability can temporarily reduce prices, even during a warmer demand period. Greece deepened its export position, while Bulgaria increased exports sharply, helped by better solar output. These markets were not immune to volatility, but they demonstrated that renewable availability can still create short-term price relief.
The trading consequence is that SEE is becoming more spread-driven. The key opportunities are no longer only in absolute price direction, but in the gap between Italy and the Balkans, between Hungary and Serbia, between Bulgaria and Romania, and between Türkiye and the wider EU-linked SEE market. For buyers, this means hedging strategies must focus on peak-hour exposure. For generators, it means capture prices will increasingly depend on when power is produced, not only how much is produced.
