Wholesale electricity prices moved sharply higher across Southeast Europe in Week 34, despite an overall decline in electricity consumption, highlighting the growing importance of generation availability and the timing of supply in shaping regional market prices during the summer period.
Between 17 and 23 August, Greece recorded the strongest weekly increase among the monitored markets, with its day-ahead electricity price rising 41.2% compared to Week 33, reaching €144.41/MWh. Bulgaria followed with an increase of 16.9%, while prices in Türkiye rose by 12.8%. Hungary recorded a 7.2% increase, followed by Romania at 6.6%, Croatia at 6.5% and Serbia at 5.8%. Italy was the only market to register a decline, with prices falling 2.2% to €168.31/MWh, although it remained the most expensive market in the region. Hungary averaged €155.16/MWh, Croatia €153.78/MWh, Romania €152.54/MWh and Bulgaria €150.60/MWh.
The upward price trend was particularly notable given the region’s consumption profile. Total electricity demand across the monitored markets reached 17,590 GWh, representing a 6.42% decline compared with Week 30. Italy recorded the largest decrease in demand, down 17.36%, followed by Greece with a 10.87% decline and Romania with a reduction of 4.74%. Consumption also edged lower in Bulgaria, Türkiye and Hungary. Serbia and Croatia stood out as the main exceptions, with electricity demand increasing by 13.54% and 14.33%, respectively.
The divergence between falling consumption and rising wholesale prices indicates that market conditions were increasingly influenced by supply-side constraints rather than overall demand growth. Variable renewable electricity generation declined by 11% compared with Week 30, mainly due to a 26.4% drop in wind generation. Thermal generation also decreased by 13.07%, while gas-fired output contracted by as much as 30.32%. As a result, the available generation capacity became increasingly valuable during periods when renewable output weakened.
The developments also highlighted the growing importance of intraday supply patterns and hourly market dynamics. Electricity systems with a large share of solar capacity can experience relatively comfortable supply conditions during daylight hours, while the market becomes significantly tighter after sunset as solar generation rapidly declines. The hourly price pattern during Week 34 showed a pronounced evening ramp across Southeast Europe, with prices increasing sharply following the midday trough.
This means that relatively weak average demand over the course of a week can still coincide with several highly constrained hours capable of having a significant impact on overall market prices. The ability of the system to replace declining renewable generation during these periods is therefore becoming an increasingly important factor in regional price formation.
Week 34 provided a clear indication of how Southeast European electricity markets are evolving. Wholesale prices are becoming less dependent on aggregate consumption alone and increasingly sensitive to the composition, availability and timing of electricity generation. As variable renewable capacity continues to expand across the region, the key question for traders, generators and market participants is no longer simply how much electricity is being consumed, but which sources of generation are available when the system needs them most.
