Southeast European electricity markets showed a mixed trading pattern for Wednesday delivery, as Central European hubs continued to provide strong price support above €125/MWh, while Greece and parts of the southern Balkans remained comparatively weaker due to renewable availability and lower marginal generation costs. Although regional demand increased, the simultaneous decline in wind and solar output tightened system balances and prevented a broader downward move in prices.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price settled at €126.90/MWh, slightly lower than the previous session but still acting as a key price anchor for the higher-priced segment of the region. Slovenia’s BSP cleared at €127.60/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX followed closely at €127.45/MWh, confirming strong Central European convergence. Romania’s OPCOM registered €125.04/MWh, reflecting tight integration with regional fundamentals. Serbia’s SEEPEX settled at €115.78/MWh, maintaining a discount to EU-linked markets while remaining above southern Balkan levels. Greece’s HENEX recorded the lowest regional price at €104.15/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX closed at €112.15/MWh.
The regional balance tightened noticeably as consumption rose to around 29.7 GW, an increase of approximately 930 MW day-on-day. At the same time, total generation fell by nearly 1 GW, creating firmer conditions for wholesale pricing. Renewable output weakened, with solar generation dropping by 436 MW and wind declining by 322 MW, easing the downward pressure seen in previous sessions. Hydro generation also softened slightly, although it remained one of the dominant technologies in the regional mix alongside solar.
Hydropower and solar each contributed roughly 24% of total regional generation, followed by coal at 16% and gas and nuclear at 15% each. Net imports accounted for just 2% of total supply, underlining the region’s relatively strong internal balancing capability despite weaker renewable production.
Cross-border flows showed a clear reduction in reliance on external supply. Net imports into the SEE–Hungary zone declined from 596 MW to 306 MW, while inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary fell significantly from 1,819 MW to 1,098 MW. This indicates stronger regional self-balancing and reduced dependence on Western European baseload, even in a high-price environment.
Physical trade patterns highlighted continued Romanian exports into Hungary, sustained Bulgarian exports toward Serbia and North Macedonia, and steady Slovenian exports into Italy. These flows reinforce Hungary’s role as a central balancing hub in the region, where market behavior is increasingly driven by local renewable conditions and congestion patterns rather than direct alignment with German price signals.
Intraday markets across HUPX, SEEPEX, OPCOM, and BSP continued to exhibit pronounced volatility driven by solar generation. Midday hours saw significant price weakening due to high solar output, while evening hours experienced sharp recoveries as demand increased and renewable supply faded. Peak prices were typically observed around hour 21, with values reaching €180–203/MWh across several markets, while midday troughs remained significantly lower, creating wide daily spreads.
Forward curves signaled a softer medium-term outlook. Austrian CEGH gas eased to €50.28/MWh, EUA carbon allowances declined to €76.15/t, while German Week-25 power dropped to €108.50/MWh and Hungarian Week-25 contracts fell to €113.00/MWh. These movements reflect expectations of easing demand pressure, improved renewable output, and moderating weather conditions in the coming period.
Weather forecasts support this outlook, with temperatures across Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia expected to decline notably in the second half of the week. In Serbia, for example, temperatures are projected to fall from around 24°C to below 19°C, reducing cooling demand and easing pressure on both thermal generation and imports.
For Serbia, the trading session reflected a stable competitive position. SEEPEX traded approximately €11/MWh below HUPX and BSP, maintaining its discount relative to Central European hubs while benefiting from regional balancing opportunities, particularly from Bulgaria and Hungary. The current spread structure continues to support short-term optimisation strategies rather than sustained directional import dependence.
Market participants will now monitor the recovery of renewable generation later in the week. Combined with softer gas and carbon prices and lower temperatures, the outlook suggests potential downside pressure on spot prices. However, persistent evening scarcity premiums remain a defining feature of the regional market, ensuring that intraday volatility and flexibility value continue to dominate trading opportunities across Southeast Europe.
