SEE power markets entered Week 25 with a clearly bullish underlying tone across most Central and Western Balkan systems, despite a softer gas price environment. The regional pricing direction was driven less by fuel costs and more by fundamental system tightness, as demand increased, hydro output weakened, wind generation declined, and thermal plants were required to step in more frequently. Total demand rose by 3.1% to 16.34 TWh, while thermal generation increased by 19.4% to 5.31 TWh. Within this, gas-fired output expanded by 32.3%, adding 771 GWh week-on-week as the system leaned more heavily on flexible dispatchable capacity.
The price landscape split into four distinct layers. Italy remained the clear premium market at €127.69/MWh, up 3.7%, supported by reduced hydro availability, weaker wind conditions, stronger thermal dispatch, and sustained import dependence. Below Italy, Hungary, Romania, and Croatia formed a high-price Central and Southeast European cluster, recording averages of €109.16/MWh, €104.84/MWh, and €102.36/MWh respectively. A second tier included Serbia, Greece, and Bulgaria, which traded in a lower but still elevated band of approximately €85–88/MWh. At the other extreme, Türkiye remained structurally detached from the regional stack at just €16.66/MWh, highlighting a persistent divergence in market fundamentals and pricing formation.
A defining feature of the week was the evening ramp structure. While solar generation increased by 8.1%, wind output declined by 4.4%, producing a pronounced intraday imbalance. This led to softer midday prices but significantly tighter evening conditions, reinforcing the importance of flexibility across the system. As a result, assets capable of responding to late-day scarcity—such as thermal plants, storage systems, and flexible demand—captured increasing value. The market structure further strengthened the relevance of shaped delivery products and intraday trading strategies.
Cross-border flows also played a central role in price formation. Although overall SEE net imports declined by 20.4% to 1.03 TWh, structural imbalances persisted. Italy alone imported 1.12 TWh, remaining the region’s dominant demand sink. At the same time, Greece and Bulgaria strengthened their export positions, Serbia moved into modest net exports, and Croatia increased its reliance on imports. These shifts highlight how regional pricing dynamics were increasingly driven by physical availability and transmission constraints, rather than purely by marginal fuel costs.
On the fuel side, gas markets provided only partial relief. TTF futures fell by 14.8% to an average of €41.76/MWh, supported by stronger LNG inflows into key Southern European entry points such as Greece and Italy. However, the decline in gas prices did not translate into lower power prices, as the system still required additional dispatchable generation to balance intermittent renewable output and demand peaks.
Forward indicators reinforced the tightening market narrative. Day-ahead prices for 24 June rose sharply across the region, ranging from €106.81/MWh in Albania and Kosovo to €202.95/MWh in Romania. This confirmed that scarcity conditions were not isolated to a single hour or day, but were embedded in the short-term market structure.
Overall, Week 25 underscored a key shift in SEE power markets: pricing is increasingly driven by system flexibility, hourly balance, and cross-border constraints, rather than fuel cost alone.
