Southeast European power markets tightened in Week 27 while northwest Europe softened, creating a clear regional split driven by demand growth, weaker renewable and hydro output, higher thermal generation and increased cross-border imports.
SEE electricity demand rose 2.1% week on week to 18.80 TWh, up from 18.41 TWh. Türkiye accounted for the largest absolute increase, adding 448 GWh to reach 7.73 TWh, while Greece rose 8.0%, Romania increased 7.3% and Croatia gained 2.9%.
The demand increase came as variable renewable output declined. Regional wind and solar generation fell 3.3% to 4.15 TWh, with wind down 5.1% and solar down 1.8%. Türkiye recorded the largest renewable drop, with variable RES output down 22.0%, while Greece also saw a notable fall as weaker wind outweighed higher solar output.
Hydro also weakened. SEE hydropower generation declined 3.4%, from 3.53 TWh to 3.41 TWh, led by lower output in Bulgaria and additional declines in Italy, Romania, Hungary and Serbia. Croatia and Greece posted hydro gains, but these were not enough to offset the broader regional decline.
The system compensated with higher thermal production. SEE thermal generation rose 6.5%, from 6.44 TWh to 6.86 TWh. Lignite and coal output increased 11.6%, while gas-fired generation rose 3.3%. This shift increased the role of dispatchable generation in price formation and made power prices more sensitive to fuel costs, plant availability and gas-market risk.
The price effect was visible across the region. Romania averaged EUR 164.31/MWh, Hungary EUR 162.04/MWh, Croatia EUR 142.57/MWh, Serbia EUR 139.93/MWh, Italy EUR 134.85/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 114.61/MWh and Greece EUR 112.81/MWh. Türkiye remained the cheapest monitored SEE market at EUR 47.36/MWh, despite a sharp percentage increase from the previous week.
Northwest Europe moved in the opposite direction. France, Iberia, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands and Austria all recorded weekly declines, supported by cooler weather after the late-June heat wave and stronger wind generation. This shows the SEE price rise was not part of a uniform European trend, but a regional tightening event.
Cross-border flows confirm the split. SEE net imports rose 28.2% to 1.25 TWh. Hungary’s imports climbed 157.9% to 202 GWh, Romania’s increased 44.8% to 194 GWh, and Serbia moved from 7 GWh to 90 GWh of net imports. Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye stayed net exporters, though their export balances narrowed.
Gas market conditions added further support. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% on the week, with prices moving above EUR 45/MWh by week-end. The report also noted European storage around 48% full, with the market still sensitive to LNG flows, Strait of Hormuz risk and Qatar production normalization.
For the Market Trends Group, the priority is to track whether the Week 27 tightening drivers persist. Continued heat, weak wind, low hydro, firm gas prices and rising imports into Hungary, Romania and Serbia would support further SEE strength. Cooler weather, wind recovery, hydro improvement, softer gas or better local thermal availability would weaken the signal.
SEE should be treated as a separate tightening zone from northwest Europe, with Romania, Hungary and Serbia as the main pressure points and gas, wind, hydro and imports as the key early-warning indicators.
