High European refining margins are increasingly reshaping supply allocation, with refiners prioritizing markets that offer the highest liquidity and netbacks. In this context, Southeast Europe often becomes a residual market, receiving barrels later and at higher premiums.
This pattern is not merely cyclical. As European refining capacity remains structurally tight, SEE markets are exposed to more frequent supply constraints, forcing traders to rethink traditional approaches. Longer coverage horizons become necessary, and optionality is reduced.
Consequently, trading behavior shifts from opportunistic spot purchases toward structured supply strategies, where inventory is valued primarily as insurance against volatility rather than as a speculative instrument.
