Serbia’s oil and gas company NIS returned to profitability in the first half of 2026, recording €83.5 million in net profit and approximately €300 million in EBITDA. The results were supported by higher crude oil prices, positive inventory effects and continued cost-control measures. An average Brent crude price of $92.60 per barrel created a favourable market environment for the period.
NIS continued its investment programme with €101 million in capital expenditure during the first six months of 2026. Despite improved financial performance, the company remained dependent on temporary US operating authorisations linked to its ownership structure involving Russian shareholders. The latest licence extension allows NIS to continue crude procurement, refinery operations and fuel distribution until 28 August.
Licence validity and operational planning constraints
The short validity period is cited as the main strategic weakness despite preventing an immediate disruption to operations. Repeated temporary extensions provide short-term continuity but do not create the certainty required for long-term business planning. The lack of clarity affects crude supply contracts, financing conditions, insurance arrangements, shipping operations and major investment decisions.
NIS also remains positioned as a critical element of Serbia’s energy security system. In the first half of 2026, the company processed 1.6 million tonnes of crude oil and intermediate products. Petroleum product sales reached 1.4 million tonnes over the same period.
Refining footprint, retail network and supply logistics
NIS operates 384 filling stations, including 327 in Serbia, while the Pančevo refinery is described as strategically important for domestic fuel supply, government revenues and industrial activity. Any prolonged disruption would affect not only NIS but also the wider Serbian economy. Summer hydrological conditions added further risk to logistics.
Extremely low Danube water levels reduced river transport capacity to only 30–40% of normal levels. This limited fuel import alternatives at the same time as supply flexibility became increasingly important. In response, Serbia temporarily released mandatory operational diesel reserves held by oil companies, reduced excise duties by 20%, and kept state strategic reserves unchanged.
The measures provided additional supply security while highlighting links between refinery operations, transport infrastructure and geopolitical risks . Any sustained constraints in these areas would therefore intersect with both operational continuity and procurement options.
Ownership restructuring steps and regional asset changes
A possible ownership solution could involve Hungary’s MOL Group, although outcomes depend on transaction conditions, sanctions approvals, governance arrangements and Serbia’s ability to maintain strategic influence over NIS. The company has started reducing its regional exposure by agreeing to sell its Romanian subsidiary. It is also continuing preparations for potential divestment of its Bulgarian operations.
Both transactions remain subject to regulatory approvals and authorisation from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) . The divestments could strengthen NIS’s financial flexibility and simplify its regional structure, while also reducing geographic diversification at a time when energy security remains a key concern.
Crude route diversification via Hungary pipeline planning
Serbia is working to diversify crude supply routes through Hungary as part of efforts to reduce reliance on existing corridors through Croatia. State-owned Transnafta has submitted an environmental assessment for a planned pipeline connecting Horgoš and Novi Sad. The project would link Serbia with the Druzhba pipeline system and reduce dependence on the JANAF route through Croatia.
The planned construction and supervision contracts are estimated at approximately €131 million, excluding VAT. The project is expected to improve logistical flexibility and create an additional supply route . It would not automatically remove exposure to Russian-origin crude if connected infrastructure remains influenced by geopolitical and sanctions-related risks.
Power generation trials using field gas resources
NIS continues smaller operational investments despite uncertainty around its strategic position. Two gas-fired power plants at Banatsko Miloševo and Srpska Crnja entered trial operation following a €17 million investment . With combined capacity of 5 MW, the facilities are expected to generate approximately 40.5 GWh annually.
The generation forecast is based on use of previously underutilised field gas resources. These projects are described as improving operational efficiency and resource utilisation, but they do not address uncertainty surrounding refinery continuity and ownership . The operating licence itself is not presented as the root cause; it is described as the mechanism through which wider ownership and geopolitical issues affect NIS.
