The volume of trade on the Hungarian gas exchange CEEGEX in January 2023 increased both on an annual and monthly level, to 2.7 TWh, from 2.6 TWh in December 2022, that is, from 1.7 TWh in January 2022, according to the monthly report stock exchange operator.
The average spot price of gas on CEEGEX was 67 euros per MWh in January. In the previous six months, the spot price fell by almost 250 euros per MWh, from 315 euros per MWh, the analysis shows. Similar trends were recorded at TTF DA and CEGH DA.
The leading reasons for this are the mild weather, which affected a drop in gas consumption by 20 percent, a large influx of LNG to Europe (with less LNG deliveries to China by 20 percent) and an increase in wind production in January by 30 percent on an annual basis level.
In January, the difference to the TTF FM-spot returned to negative territory, encouraging spot trading, against the allocation of additional volumes in line with long-term contracts, according to the CEEGEX monthly analysis.
On the other hand, the withdrawal of gas from storage was accelerated in January, despite the relatively mild weather.
In October and November, the difference between the spot and forward markets widened significantly. Reasons for low spot prices are mild weather, high levels of LNG storage and delivery. Risks related to the war in Ukraine and uncertainty only affect forward contracts.
The analysis adds that gas consumption in Hungary increased to similar levels as in the first half of December (in the second half of December consumption fell due to mild weather). However, consumption was 30 percent lower compared to January last year. In parallel, gas withdrawals have increased in line with demand.
The total import of gas decreased, mostly due to the smaller volume of imports from Serbia and Austria. At the same time, exports to Slovakia increased, according to the CEEGEX report for January.
