In the week of January 1, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the IPEX market of Italy, with a 14% decrease, and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, with a 23% drop. On the other hand, the EPEX SPOT market of Germany registered the largest percentage price rise, which was 222%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 49% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 163% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the first week of January, weekly averages were below €85/MWh in almost all analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Italian market, which reached the highest average, €100.01/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €58.88/MWh in the Spanish market to €83.13/MWh in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries.
As for hourly prices, the German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets registered negative hourly prices on January 1 and 3. On January 1, the British market also registered negative prices. However, these negative prices were not as low as those reached in these markets during the previous week. On the other hand, on Friday, January 5, from 16:00 to 17:00, the Nordic market price was €254.58/MWh. This was the highest hourly price since December 2022. The MIBEL market registered the lowest daily prices between January 5 and 7, which helped it to have the lowest weekly average compared to the rest of the main European markets.
During the week of January 1, the general increase in electricity demand led to higher prices in European electricity markets. The fall in solar energy production in countries such as Germany and France and the decline in German wind energy production also contributed to the price increases. However, the significant rise in wind energy production in Italy and the Iberian Peninsula favoured lower prices in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the second week of January, prices might continue to rise in European electricity markets. The recovery in demand and the general decline in wind energy production might contribute to this behaviour.
