In the third week of January 2025, TTF gas futures for contracts with delivery in February 2025 saw a decline compared to the previous week, although they still remained above €46/MWh throughout the week. On Thursday, January 16th, TTF gas futures hit their weekly minimum settlement price of €46.241/MWh, which was 1.6% lower than the previous day, but still 2.8% higher than the previous Thursday. Earlier, on Monday, January 13th, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €48.261/MWh, marking a 7.2% increase from the last session of the previous week and a 2.0% rise from Monday, January 6th.
Dutch wholesale gas prices rose on January 13th due to a combination of factors, including reports of attempted attacks on Russian gas pipelines, low storage levels, new U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, and forecasts for colder, less windy weather. Prices were likely reacting to unverified claims from Moscow that Ukraine had attempted to attack part of the TurkStream pipeline infrastructure, which transports Russian gas to Europe via Türkiye.
Europe’s continued demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other regions was also a factor driving prices higher. This was largely due to renewed supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. However, by Thursday, January 16th, prices began to recede as forecasts for milder weather reduced demand expectations.
As of the latest data, the one-month forward contract at TTF was trading at €49.890/MWh. On January 13th, Russia’s defense ministry claimed that its forces had thwarted a Ukrainian attack on the shoreside components of the TurkStream gas pipeline, which connects Russian producer Gazprom to European markets via Türkiye. TurkStream, running from Russia’s Anapa terminal to Kiyikoy in Turkey, is the only remaining Russian pipeline supplying gas to Europe. The Kremlin claimed that Ukraine used long-range drones to target the Russkaya compressor station on the Russian side of the pipeline but that air defense units shot down the drones before they could cause significant damage.
This event highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks surrounding Europe’s gas supply. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has been working to reduce its reliance on Russian energy sources, shifting toward alternatives like American LNG. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline system and the closure of the trans-Ukrainian pipeline network in late 2024 have severed most of Gazprom’s access to Europe.
In response, a coalition of ten EU member states, including Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Ireland, has called on the European Commission to take steps to phase out or ban Russian LNG imports. While none of these countries are currently importing Russian LNG, the group is urging for a reduction of imports across the EU, citing energy security concerns.
Despite these calls for action, a significant portion of Russian LNG continued to flow to France, Belgium, and Spain in 2024, with officials citing the need for supply security as the primary reason for these ongoing imports.
