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Europe: SEE electricity demand grows amid lower renewable output and rising thermal power generation

In Week 35 of 2024, electricity demand in Southeast Europe (SEE) edged higher compared to the previous week, driven by increased consumption in Italy, Hungary, and Croatia. Despite average temperatures stabilizing in most other countries, the overall electricity demand in the region grew by 1.88%, reaching 17,104.06 GWh. Italy and Hungary saw the largest demand increases at 15.06% and 12.65% respectively, followed by Croatia with a 4.52% rise. In contrast, Turkey and Greece experienced declines in demand by -7.7% and -2.34%, as temperatures receded from the highs seen earlier in the summer.

The output from variable renewable energy sources in the SEE region fell during Week 35, declining by -4.5% to 2,610.51 GWh, as wind and solar power generation dropped. Wind generation remained relatively stable at 1,149.36 GWh, though individual countries saw mixed results. Serbia posted a sharp wind output decrease of -74.5%, followed by Hungary with a -39.5% decline. Turkey also experienced a -26.3% drop in wind power generation. Conversely, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece saw increased wind output compared to the previous week.

Solar generation also saw a decline across most SEE countries, falling by -7.7% to 1,461.16 GWh. The largest declines were recorded in Bulgaria (-35.1%) and Romania (-35.2%). Hungary was the only country to buck this trend, maintaining steady solar output.

Hydropower output in the SEE region fell by -6.22%, reaching 2,418.05 GWh in Week 35. Most countries posted declines, including Hungary (-15.94%), Bulgaria (-15.03%), and Greece (-14.74%). Turkey, Italy, and Serbia also saw lower hydropower yields, while Romania was the exception, increasing its hydropower output by 7.34%.

Thermal power generation, on the other hand, increased by 6.23% compared to Week 34, reaching 8,851.66 GWh. Coal-fired generation rose by 2.38% to 3,716.74 GWh, while gas-fired generation surged by 9.19% to 5,134.92 GWh. Turkey saw a slight increase in coal generation by 0.39%, but its gas-fired output fell by -12.85%. Bulgaria experienced a 4.52% rise in coal generation but a -5.20% decrease in gas-fired electricity. Italy saw a 37.99% jump in gas-fired generation, despite a -12.74% drop in coal power. Greece posted significant increases in lignite generation (55.93%) and a modest 0.37% rise in gas-fired electricity.

Cross-border electricity trade saw a sharp increase in net imports across the SEE region, rising by 17.07% to 1,714.06 GWh. Electricity exports from the region plummeted by -96.8%, totaling only 2.99 GWh, while imports grew by 10.2%, reaching 1,717.05 GWh. Hungary and Italy registered the highest increases in net imports at 63.80% and 13.57% respectively. In contrast, Greece and Serbia saw reductions in net imports by -59.28% and -32.74%. Notably, Turkey shifted from a net importer in Week 34 to a net exporter in Week 35, recording exports of 2.99 GWh, while Bulgaria reversed its position from an exporter to an importer.

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