During the penultimate week of December, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market showed a clear downward trend, closing on Friday, December 20, at $72.94 per barrel, marking a 2.1% decrease from the previous week’s closing price.
This decline came amid fresh economic data from China, which indicated a slowdown in the country’s economy, with November’s retail sales growth falling short of expectations. As the world’s largest oil importer, this economic slowdown raised concerns about a potential dip in global oil demand. Additionally, the International Energy Agency’s forecasts suggest that non-OPEC+ countries may increase production significantly by 2025, potentially leading to a surplus in the oil market.
On the other hand, TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market saw an upward trend, closing on Friday, December 20, at €44.13/MWh, a 7.1% increase from the previous week. However, the weekly average of closing prices was still 3.9% lower than the week prior. Despite short-term volatility, the medium-term trend for gas prices remains bullish, with prices rising since reaching lows below €25/MWh in February. Market uncertainty surrounding the end of the Russian supply contract via Ukraine and the significantly lower gas reserves compared to last year—due to colder temperatures this winter—continue to exert upward pressure on prices.
In the carbon market, CO2 emission allowance futures for the December 2025 benchmark contract on the EEX market experienced a turnaround, closing at €68.20 per ton on Friday, December 20, up by 1.7% compared to the previous week’s price. This upward movement in CO2 prices closely mirrored the behavior of gas prices, with both markets showing similar trends. However, despite the weekly rise, the average closing prices for CO2 emissions remained lower than the week before, AleaSoft reports.
