During Week 10 of 2025, European gas prices initially continued their downward trend, reaching their lowest point in four months on March 6, before experiencing a slight recovery. Warmer temperatures and strong solar power generation led to a series of declines, reducing concerns about supply levels.
TTF gas futures for April 2025 delivery remained under €50/MWh throughout the final week of February and early March. On March 3, futures peaked at €45.233/MWh, which was 2.0% higher than the last session of the previous week but still 4.5% lower than the same day the previous week. By March 6, prices had fallen to €38.24/MWh, marking a 7.9% drop from the previous day and a 15.3% decline compared to a week earlier. The weekly average settled at €41.679/MWh, down 6.5% from the previous week.
The steep drop on March 6 was mainly driven by reduced concerns over European gas storage and developments in peace talks related to the conflict in Ukraine.
On March 7, the U.S. president announced potential sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and final peace agreement were reached. This caused prices to rise nearly 9% during trading before closing 4.5% higher. Despite this increase, the week still ended with an overall decline of 9.8%, continuing a four-week losing streak.
By March 9, the one-month forward contract at TTF was trading at €41.365/MWh. Meanwhile, reports from Moscow indicated a willingness to engage in negotiations for a truce, though the situation on the battlefield remained intense. On March 8, a missile strike damaged gas production facilities in central Ukraine, further worsening the country’s energy shortages and increasing its reliance on European imports.
Even with the recent price declines, longer-term supply concerns persist. Some LNG shipments are now being diverted away from Europe toward more profitable markets, particularly in Asia, reducing availability in the region. Gas storage levels in Europe are currently at 37%, significantly lower than the over 60% recorded in March of the previous two years.
A recent warning from the International Energy Agency highlighted the need for substantially higher LNG imports in 2025 to restore storage levels for the next winter season. While gas exports from North America are expected to grow by 5% in 2025, up from 1.5% in the previous year, this increase may not be enough to fully offset the loss of Russian gas previously transported through Ukraine.
With Europe now more reliant on LNG shipments, market conditions remain volatile. Prices could experience further fluctuations as the continent works to rebuild its reserves before winter.
