In Week 27, European gas prices remained stable, supported by strong supply from Norway and LNG imports. Natural gas futures for delivery in August 2025 on the ICE market hovered around €33/MWh, near two-month lows. This stability was driven by abundant supply and reduced demand from the power sector following the end of the heatwave at the close of Week 27. The expected drop in temperatures and increased wind energy production in early July helped keep TTF gas futures prices below €34/MWh throughout the week.
During the first week of July, TTF gas futures on the ICE market for August delivery stayed close to €33/MWh. On Monday, June 30, prices hit a weekly low settlement of €32.898/MWh, down 2.3% from the previous week’s last session and 20.0% lower than the same day the previous week. Prices rose to a weekly high of €33.693/MWh on Tuesday, July 1, before dipping slightly to close at €33.469/MWh on Friday, July 4. The weekly average settled at €33.454/MWh, marking a 7.6% decrease from Week 26.
Norwegian gas exports remained steady at around 321 million cubic meters per day with minimal disruptions, while LNG imports increased, contributing to balanced European gas prices. Attention now shifts to potential impacts of new U.S. tariffs starting August 1. Despite gradual replenishment since a harsh winter, European gas storage levels were at 58.9% full as of June 30, 2025, significantly below last year’s 77.42% for the same date, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
In response to these conditions, the European Parliament approved eased rules for gas storage refill targets aimed at preventing price spikes. The new rules allow EU member states to meet the 90% storage target anytime between October 1 and December 1, rather than a fixed deadline of November 1 as before. Additionally, countries may deviate by up to 10 percentage points from the target during difficult market conditions, such as speculation hindering cost-effective filling.
Following parliamentary approval, these eased storage targets now await formal approval from EU member states, a step expected to proceed without amendments.
