Following the August 15 meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and Trump’s subsequent conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European gas prices fell to a new low for 2025 as markets anticipated a possible easing of geopolitical tensions. On Monday, August 18, the one-month contract on the Dutch TTF gas exchange traded near €30/MWh, the lowest level of the year so far, though still above pre-pandemic prices.
In the third week of August, TTF gas futures for September 2025 delivery on the ICE market remained around €32/MWh, down from Week 30 (21–27 July 2025). On Tuesday, August 19, the futures contract reached its weekly low of €31.227/MWh, 0.1% lower than the previous day and 5.7% below the same day in late July. Prices rose 2.2% on Wednesday and continued an upward trend through the week, reaching €32.573/MWh on Friday, August 22, the week’s high. The weekly average price was €32.231/MWh, 1.6% lower than in Week 30.
Gas prices increased on August 22 as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire diminished and potential supply constraints emerged. The mid-August Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ended without concrete agreements, dampening earlier optimism. Several factors have contributed to lower prices in recent weeks: European gas storage has filled faster than expected, reaching near-record summer levels; LNG imports, especially from the United States, have remained strong; and Russian pipeline flows, though politically sensitive, have not faced significant disruptions in 2025. Demand growth has also been limited.
Geopolitical risks remain, with Ukraine striking Russian energy facilities and the United States signaling additional sanctions on Moscow. President Trump has warned of tougher measures within two weeks if peace talks do not progress. As of late August, EU gas storage was nearly 75% full, below the five-year average of 82% and well under last year’s 91% for the same period.
According to European Gas Hub, lower demand—particularly in Southern and Western Europe—enabled a 14% week-on-week increase in storage injections, the highest weekly average since early July. This occurred despite a steady decline in LNG send-out in recent weeks. EU countries have supplied Ukraine with 3.5 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of gas in 2025, primarily from Hungary and Poland, with smaller volumes from Slovakia and Romania. However, deliveries have slowed in the past two weeks, largely due to reduced flows from Germany via Czechia and Slovakia.
Much of this supply is linked to increased LNG imports in Poland, Germany, and Northwest Europe, with additional contributions from Lithuania’s Klaipeda terminal.
