A recent report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) projects that the European Union could reduce its total imports of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 25% between 2024 and 2030. This forecast is driven by a continuing decline in gas consumption, fueled by the EU’s increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and stronger energy efficiency measures, which are central to the REPowerEU initiative.
Launched in May 2022, REPowerEU aims to eliminate the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Since its inception, member states have focused heavily on clean energy and efficiency strategies to boost energy security and economic competitiveness. As part of this effort, countries committed to annually reducing gas use starting in 2022. From April 2024 to March 2025, the collective target was to cut gas consumption by at least 15% compared to the average levels between April 2017 and March 2022.
According to the IEEFA report, this target was not only met but slightly exceeded, with an overall reduction of 15.6% in gas usage. However, some countries, including Poland and Greece, saw minor increases despite the overall downward trend.
Last month, the European Commission released a roadmap reaffirming the bloc’s ambitions. The plan outlines how comprehensive deployment of clean energy and efficiency measures, including those outlined in the Action Plan for Affordable Energy, could reduce natural gas demand by up to 100 billion cubic meters by 2030. This equates to an annual reduction of over 15 billion cubic meters and could cut demand by 40 to 50 billion cubic meters as early as 2027, paving the way for a complete phase-out of Russian gas imports.
Between 2021 and 2024, the EU successfully lowered gas consumption by roughly 80 billion cubic meters—a 20% drop. Continuing on this path makes the 100 billion cubic meter reduction target by 2030 achievable.
In 2024, the EU imported about 275 billion cubic meters of natural gas and LNG. If current trends continue, this number could decrease to 233 billion cubic meters by 2030. An even more ambitious forecast from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators estimates demand could fall to around 190 billion cubic meters by then.
Ultimately, the report concludes that Europe’s progress toward reducing gas dependence is on track and may eliminate the need for new gas infrastructure or additional import capacity. This development supports both the continent’s energy independence and its long-term climate goals.
