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Region: Electricity prices surge across Southeast Europe amid declining wind production and rising gas costs

In Week 43 of 2024, electricity prices across the Southeast Europe (SEE) region experienced significant increases compared to the previous week. The rise was primarily driven by a drop in wind energy production and escalating gas prices, with TTF gas futures reaching levels not seen since December 2023.

Croatia and Bulgaria reported the highest percentage increases in electricity prices, surging by 43.37% and 41.71%, respectively. Hungary and Romania followed, with increases of 39.65% and 38.65%. Conversely, Italy and Türkiye were the only countries with single-digit growth, at 4.04% and 3.96%, respectively.

Central Europe also saw average spot electricity prices rise, driven by higher gas prices and increased electricity demand. Prices in this region ranged from €71 to €108/MWh, with Slovakia being the most expensive market at €107.68/MWh, a 41.71% increase from the prior week. Slovenia followed closely at €104.7/MWh, while France recorded the lowest price at €70.67/MWh, up by 33.79%.

In the broader European context, average prices hovered around €99/MWh, with Italy continuing to hold the highest market price at €120.86/MWh for the third consecutive week. In the Iberian Peninsula, prices were slightly lower, with Portugal at €74.83/MWh and Spain at €74.63/MWh.

In the SEE region, most countries saw electricity prices exceed €100/MWh, with Türkiye having the lowest average price at €61.55/MWh. Greece followed with an average of €101.91/MWh. Hungary and Romania were among the top markets, with prices of €108.76/MWh and €108.15/MWh, respectively.

Electricity demand in SEE countries increased slightly by 0.71% compared to Week 42, reaching a total of 15,056.33 GWh. While Bulgaria and Serbia recorded the highest demand increases at 7.62% and 3.57%, Hungary and Italy saw declines in demand of -1.82% and -1.52%, respectively.

The region’s output from variable renewables declined by 3.3%, totaling 2,568.46 GWh, largely due to a 9.3% drop in wind generation, which fell to 1,549.21 GWh. In contrast, solar output increased by 7.4% to 1,019.25 GWh, with Bulgaria and Greece seeing the most significant rises.

Hydropower output also fell by 5.03% to 2,621.30 GWh, with reductions seen across most SEE countries, except Croatia and Bulgaria. Thermal power generation, however, increased by 7.71%, with coal-fired generation rising by 1.79% and gas-fired generation up by 13.73%.

Cross-border electricity trade saw a 51.51% increase in net imports across the SEE region, totaling 1,665.45 GWh. Exports from the region rose by 82.9%, while imports increased by 55.5%. Croatia, Romania, Hungary, and Italy experienced significant rises in net electricity imports, while Serbia and Türkiye continued as net exporters. Bulgaria shifted from a net exporting to a net importing position, while Greece was a net exporter for the week.

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