Croatian households may see a 7-8% rise in regulated gas prices from October unless the government extends subsidies designed to limit the effect of higher European wholesale prices. The final outcome depends on whether those support measures remain in place beyond the current period. The increase is linked to changes in regulated retail pricing.
Wholesale price assumptions and expected bill impact
Gas supplier Gradska Plinara Zagreb is using a wholesale price assumption of around €48/MWh for the next pricing period. Without additional state intervention, the company’s calculation points to an increase of roughly €3-€3.20 per month for an average household bill. This reflects how higher procurement costs could be passed through to regulated consumers.
Regulated pricing timeline and regulator role
Croatia’s new gas pricing year starts on Oct. 1. The regulator HERA is expected to publish final regulated prices toward the end of September. The timing places the decision window ahead of the start of the new pricing year.
The government is scheduled to review support measures covering gas, electricity and fuels in September. The extent to which household bills change will depend on how much of the higher procurement cost is reflected in regulated retail prices. That pass-through level will be influenced by the outcome of the subsidy review.
European wholesale market pressure and Croatia’s supply position
European wholesale gas prices have risen strongly during 2026, adding pressure to regulated retail markets. This comes despite relatively comfortable physical supply conditions in Croatia. The linkage is through wholesale cost levels rather than immediate supply availability.
Croatia’s Okoli underground storage facility is more than 70% full. Injections are expected to continue into October and potentially November. LNG access provides an additional supply-security buffer, lowering immediate shortage risks even though it does not shield consumers from higher international gas prices.
