The Bulgarian Commission for Energy and Water Regulation (KEVR) has sanctioned a 5% rise in the wholesale natural gas price, effective May 2026. This decision aligns with the proposal put forth by the public supplier, Bulgargaz, in mid-April and demonstrates a regulatory approach that adheres to market expectations amidst ongoing adjustments within the energy sector.
The new wholesale price is set at 35.98 euros/MWh, excluding VAT and excise duty, following a prior increment of 5.1% approved for April. Despite this increase, Bulgaria’s pricing trajectory illustrates moderate and controlled growth relative to broader trends across Europe, indicating a careful balancing act by regulators.
Notably, even after this adjustment, Bulgaria’s gas prices remain approximately 10 euros/MWh lower than those observed at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), which serves as a significant benchmark within Europe. This pricing strategy aids in maintaining relatively favorable domestic tariffs, thus insulating consumers from the more severe price fluctuations prevalent in other markets.
The KEVR has highlighted several factors that may influence future gas pricing, including geopolitical uncertainties impacting major supply routes, the speed of storage replenishment, and increasing competition for LNG cargoes between Europe and Asia. These elements contribute to a complex and uncertain pricing environment anticipated in the months ahead.
To meet its gas demand for May, Bulgaria will utilize a diversified supply mix. Key deliveries will be sourced from Azerbaijan through the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector, complemented by LNG imports arranged via traders and withdrawals from the Chiren gas storage facility. This strategy aims to ensure supply stability and flexibility amid fluctuating market conditions.
Authorities have also indicated that a long-term agreement with Azerbaijan is projected to fulfill nearly all of Bulgaria’s consumption needs during the summer months. This arrangement significantly mitigates dependence on volatile spot markets, thereby providing greater predictability and energy security for the nation.
