August wholesale gas price proposal and July comparison
Bulgaria’s state-owned supplier Bulgargaz has submitted a proposal for an August wholesale natural-gas price slightly above €37/MWh, about 1% below July’s approved level of €37.70/MWh. The adjustment follows a 5.84% increase in July. The proposed reduction is linked to lower deliveries under Bulgaria’s long-term supply arrangement with Azerbaijan, where scheduled maintenance affects volumes.
Azerbaijani gas is expected to remain the principal source for the regulated market, although contracted volumes are set to decline temporarily during August. Bulgargaz’s filing therefore reflects replacement supply needs while keeping the regulated cost base change limited.
Storage withdrawals and LNG sourcing plan
Bulgargaz plans to address the expected shortfall by withdrawing gas from the Chiren underground storage facility. The company also intends to import additional LNG via terminals in Greece to cover part of the reduced contracted deliveries. After those LNG volumes arrive, Bulgargaz plans to reinject a portion into Chiren to maintain storage levels required under Bulgaria’s emergency-supply plan.
No LNG deliveries through Turkish terminals are planned for August. With that route excluded, the supply structure places greater emphasis on access to Greek LNG infrastructure and regional interconnectors.
KEVR approval process and sensitivity to input costs
The proposed August price is positioned as consistent with securing replacement volumes without a major rise in the regulated cost base. The gap between the preliminary August level and July’s approved figure is narrow, leaving the final outcome sensitive to LNG procurement costs, storage withdrawals and movements in European hub prices before approval.
The Commission for Energy and Water Regulation (KEVR) will set the final price on 1 August following a public discussion and an update of Bulgargaz’s cost calculations.
Implications for Bulgaria’s electricity generation economics
For Bulgaria’s electricity market, a regulated gas price around €37/MWh is described as providing relatively competitive fuel input for efficient combined-cycle plants. At approximately 55% efficiency, the fuel component would be close to €67/MWh of electricity before carbon and operating costs. With EU allowances near €79/t, total variable generation costs would still move above €95/MWh, depending on plant efficiency and emissions intensity.
Gas-fired units are expected to remain relevant during evening scarcity and low-renewable periods. They are also expected to face competition from nuclear, hydro and low-marginal-cost renewable generation during solar-rich hours, while Bulgaria’s diversified supply structure supports gas flexibility without making it the dominant baseload source.
