Southeast Europe is not the world’s largest LNG market, but it remains exposed to disruptions in global LNG flows. Week 23 highlighted this vulnerability clearly. Around 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and more than 85% of those volumes typically go to Asian markets. If these flows are disrupted, the impact would reach SEE indirectly through gas pricing, LNG competition, and higher marginal costs in electricity markets.
The immediate pressure point is Qatari LNG supply. Qatar is a key exporter to Asia, and any disruption would force Asian buyers to aggressively secure alternative cargoes. Although Europe’s direct dependence on Qatari LNG has declined to roughly 8% of total imports, the risk remains systemic. LNG is a global market: if Asian demand intensifies, Europe must compete harder to attract available supply.
The report suggests that European benchmark gas prices could need to rise by 40–50% from current levels to secure sufficient LNG in a sustained disruption scenario. With TTF averaging €48.56/MWh in Week 23 and the one-month forward near €49.335/MWh, such a move would represent a significant shock for downstream electricity pricing.
US LNG provides only limited relief. Export facilities are already operating at around 94% utilisation, leaving little spare capacity to absorb sudden global shortfalls. As a result, the adjustment mechanism would largely be price-driven rather than volume-driven, meaning Europe would have to outbid Asia for flexible cargoes.
For SEE, transmission occurs through multiple channels. Italy, Greece, and Croatia all operate LNG terminals that influence regional gas balance and price formation. During Week 23, LNG inflows reached 2,836.03 GWh in Italy, 860.32 GWh in Greece, and 645.30 GWh in Croatia. These terminals are integral parts of regional supply security rather than isolated infrastructure points.
Higher LNG prices would quickly feed into gas-fired power generation costs, especially during evening peaks, low-wind periods, and high-demand weeks. In Week 23, Turkish gas-fired generation surged 278.1%, while total thermal output across SEE increased 24.5%. In a tighter LNG environment, the cost of system balancing would rise directly with fuel prices.
A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would also transmit into industrial electricity costs. Even consumers without direct gas exposure would face higher power prices if gas-fired plants set marginal prices. Energy-intensive sectors such as steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, chemicals, and data centres would all experience increased cost pressure through electricity markets and hedging requirements.
The impact would not be evenly distributed. Systems with stronger hydro or lignite availability may be partially insulated in the short term, but SEE markets are highly interconnected. Price increases in Italy, Greece, and Hungary would quickly influence cross-border flows and regional spreads, transmitting pressure throughout the Balkans.
The key takeaway is that SEE energy security is increasingly tied to global maritime chokepoints. Exposure is no longer defined solely by pipeline infrastructure or regional storage levels. It is also shaped by global LNG competition between Europe and Asia. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would not need to directly reach the Balkans to materially reprice electricity across Southeast Europe.
