A study published by the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG) and linked to the broader Mercator policy framework says the Western Balkans have gained weight under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials strategy. Within that regional picture, Serbia is highlighted as a pivotal case. The report links the EU’s push for access to lithium, copper and other strategic minerals to wider questions of governance and industrial supply-chain structure.
The study argues that securing critical raw materials has moved beyond an industrial policy initiative. It is described as a geopolitical and governance issue affecting EU enlargement policy, regional political stability and European manufacturing supply chains. For Serbia, it says the shift is already changing the country’s investment landscape.
Jadar lithium proposal and Bor copper operations
Serbia is described as holding one of Europe’s most significant undeveloped lithium deposits through the proposed Jadar project. The same jurisdiction also hosts major Chinese-controlled copper operations around Bor. The report frames this combination as a strategic overlap between European industrial-security priorities and Chinese industrial expansion.
BiEPAG’s analysis says mining projects in Serbia are increasingly assessed through political and geopolitical lenses rather than traditional mining economics alone. It cites factors such as ownership structures, downstream processing locations, financing partners, ESG standards, public opposition and geopolitical alignment alongside ore grades and extraction costs. The study describes this as a change in how Serbia’s resource sector is perceived internationally.
EU Critical Raw Materials Act benchmarks
Under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, Brussels is attempting to reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled mineral supply chains. The regulation sets strategic benchmarks aimed at diversifying sourcing and expanding Europe-linked extraction and processing capacity before 2030. The report says Serbia’s position outside the EU but within the European industrial sphere makes it attractive from Brussels’ perspective.
It points to geographic proximity, existing industrial infrastructure and relatively low operating costs, along with potential integration into European automotive and battery manufacturing chains. The study links these factors to increasing European political support for Serbian lithium development. It also identifies Jadar as a key symbol of the broader strategic repositioning.
Governance concerns tied to lithium development
The report says Jadar, if developed, could theoretically supply a substantial share of Europe’s lithium demand. It also connects the project to efforts to strengthen Europe’s battery manufacturing ambitions while reducing exposure to Asian supply chains. At the same time, it says lithium development exposes political contradictions within Europe’s critical-mineral strategy.
BiEPAG warns that many mining projects across the Western Balkans are advancing in governance environments marked by weak institutional oversight and limited transparency, alongside growing political centralization. In Serbia, it says lithium development has triggered years of public protests and environmental activism, with accusations that strategic industrial priorities are overriding local environmental concerns and democratic participation.
EU credibility debate amid EU-China economic ties
The study frames the governance tension as a test of EU credibility. It says European institutions present critical minerals as essential for decarbonisation, electric vehicles and defence technologies, as well as industrial competitiveness. Critics cited in the report argue that environmental safeguards, local consultation processes and governance standards risk being treated as secondary once projects are categorized as strategically important.
The dynamics are described as especially visible in Serbia because it seeks closer EU economic integration while maintaining strong economic and political relationships with China. The report says Chinese capital plays a dominant role in parts of Serbia’s copper and heavy-industrial sectors. It adds that operations linked to the Bor mining complex have integrated segments of Serbian metals production into Chinese-controlled industrial ecosystems.
Downstream value creation and energy-linked compliance
The study describes Belgrade’s situation as requiring balancing between investment flows originating from both Brussels and Beijing. It says global competition over critical minerals is making dual alignment harder to maintain as supply chains become securitized and industrial policy becomes more geopolitical. It also expects external pressure for regulatory alignment, transparency and selection of strategic partnerships to intensify.
The implications extend beyond mining itself, with Serbia facing a choice between remaining primarily a raw-material exporter or developing integrated downstream capacity tied to battery materials. The report lists refining, cathode production and advanced manufacturing among downstream areas it associates with higher-value battery-economy segments concentrated downstream rather than in raw extraction alone.
It says if Serbia exports concentrate or intermediate minerals while processing remains abroad, long-term industrial value creation would leave the country along with strategic leverage linked to downstream supply-chain integration. The BiEPAG framework therefore raises a question for Serbian industrial policy about whether mining projects can act as catalysts for broader industrial modernization or whether Serbia risks functioning as an extraction platform serving external supply chains.
A further issue highlighted is the link between mining competitiveness and energy systems for future European buyers. The report says European industrial supply chains are increasingly expected to show low-carbon traceability, emissions reporting and ESG compliance. For Serbia, it states that mining projects may eventually need access to renewable electricity, Guarantees of Origin, carbon-accounted processing and CBAM-compatible industrial structures.
The study connects this requirement to Serbia’s expanding renewable-energy sector alongside lithium extraction, battery manufacturing and regional power-market integration. It says achieving an “industrial node” inside Europe’s decarbonisation economy would require stronger governance capacity, infrastructure modernization and regulatory predictability than currently exists.
Strategic evaluation criteria for Serbian mining assets
The analysis portrays Serbia not as a peripheral mining jurisdiction but as one of Europe’s emerging geopolitical resource frontiers. It says this transformation affects how investors, governments and industrial groups evaluate Serbian projects over time. Mining assets are described as increasingly assessed using criteria including supply-chain security, political alignment, downstream integration, environmental legitimacy, energy sourcing and long-term industrial sovereignty.
In practical terms, the report describes Serbia’s mining sector as becoming part of a broader contest over control of Europe’s future industrial architecture.
