The Serbian government plans approximately €14.4 billion in energy investment between 2028 and 2035. The allocation includes €6.5 billion for generation, €2.4 billion for transmission and distribution, €1.2 billion for gas interconnections, and €1.2 billion for oil pipelines.
Renewable projects backed by foreign capital
SANY Renewable Energy has begun construction of the 168 MW Alibunar A and B wind portfolio, with an estimated requirement of about €240 million. The portfolio will use 40 turbines and is expected to produce around 480 GWh annually. Approximately 70% of the secured capacity received market-premium support through Serbia’s renewable auction.
The Hyundai Engineering–UGT Renewables programme is set to deliver 1.2 GWp of solar, 1 GW of connection capacity, and 200 MW/400 MWh of battery storage before transfer to EPS. South Korea’s K-Sure is providing approximately €900 million in export financing for the programme. Expected annual production is around 1.5 TWh.
Nis gas plant talks with SOCAR
At Niš, EPS and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR are negotiating a joint venture for a gas-fired power plant. The project is targeted for completion by 2030. The arrangement would position SOCAR beyond commodity supply into Serbian electricity generation.
Negative prices and storage economics in SEEPEX data
The market environment for new capacity is being shaped by negative wholesale prices and grid-related conditions. SEEPEX recorded a price of minus €45.50/MWh on June 7, with nine consecutive negative hours . The estimated solar capture price fell to only €1.70/MWh, compared with a daily baseload average of €52.20/MWh.
Indicative arbitrage spreads reached €163.60/MWh for two-hour batteries and €151.50/MWh for four-hour systems . The data point to volatility in merchant revenue while also reflecting the role of storage in capturing spreads during price swings.
CBAM exposure and domestic carbon charge for coal generation
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) adds pressure on coal-intensive operations at EPS. Management estimates approximately €150 million of lost revenue from constrained EU electricity exports . Serbia’s domestic carbon charge of €4 per tonne, applied to emissions estimated at 25 million tonnes, could cost EPS around €100 million.
The domestic levy remains far below the EU ETS price, which management says limits the protection it provides against CBAM liabilities . As a result, the economics of coal generation are affected by both export constraints and carbon-related costs.
Investment returns tied to grid build-out and carbon exposure
The scale of the investment programme is described as sufficient to transform Serbia’s generating fleet. Returns are expected to depend on transmission completion, storage deployment, wind and solar capture prices, and carbon exposure . The ability of EPS to implement operational restructuring without weakening project delivery is also cited as a factor.
