Energy experts believe that US sanctions against Serbian oil company NIS are unlikely to be implemented, as they lack economic logic and could harm Serbia rather than Russia, which contradicts the intended purpose of the sanctions.
Energy expert Milos Zdravkovic explained that Gazprom, the majority owner of NIS, is not the largest energy company in Russia. Companies such as Rosneft and Surgutneftgas are more prominent, with Gazprom ranking third in oil production. Earlier this week, NIS officially requested a 90-day postponement of the sanctions from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The request is backed by the governments of Serbia and Hungary, which aim to secure temporary licenses for NIS to continue its operations while negotiating an acceptable ownership structure vital for regional energy stability.
Zdravkovic noted that Serbia relies on the Croatian JANAF pipeline for 82% of its oil under a contract valid until 2026. In contrast, Russia exports around 2 million barrels of oil per day to China and 2.1 million to India. He rejected the notion of a forced takeover of NIS from Gazprom, citing the geopolitical sensitivity of engaging with Russia. Zdravkovic argued that sanctions against NIS should either be delayed or canceled because they are illogical from an economic and engineering standpoint, although politically, they remain feasible.
He emphasized that NIS is a strategic asset for Serbia, essential for business, energy, and security, and should remain under Serbian control. Zdravkovic suggested that the request for a delay has a higher chance of success due to Hungary’s involvement, given Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s strong ties with the US Republican Party from Donald Trump’s presidency.
