Southeast European electricity markets moved sharply lower for delivery on 3 June, as a strong rebound in wind generation and a significant increase in cross-border imports from Central Europe eased regional supply tightness and pushed day-ahead prices down across almost all major markets.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €116.31/MWh, down €5.6/MWh on the day, while Romania’s OPCOM closed at €116.24/MWh and Bulgaria’s IBEX at €115.27/MWh. Prices declined even more sharply across the Western Balkans, with Serbia’s SEEPEX falling to €108.04/MWh, Montenegro’s BELEN dropping to €106.26/MWh, and North Macedonia easing to €104.69/MWh. Greece remained the lowest-priced market in the region at €85.72/MWh, trading at a discount of more than €30/MWh versus Hungary.
The price correction was driven primarily by stronger renewable output across the region, with total SEE and Hungarian generation rising by around 1.8 GW to 27.8 GW, while demand increased more moderately to approximately 29 GW. Wind generation was the key driver, jumping by 1.28 GW to 2.49 GW, while solar output increased by 453 MW to exceed 6 GW. Hydro production also edged higher to around 6.55 GW.
The improvement in renewable generation reshaped the regional supply stack, with solar and hydro together accounting for nearly half of total output, while wind’s share doubled compared with the previous session. As a result, gas-fired generation declined by nearly 500 MW, reflecting reduced reliance on thermal plants in a more balanced system.
Cross-border flows played a decisive role in balancing the system, as net imports into the wider SEE-Hungary region surged to 1,830 MW from just 232 MW a day earlier. Strong inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia exceeded 2.6 GW, underscoring the growing importance of Central European supply in stabilizing Southeast European demand conditions.
A widening price spread between Hungary and Germany reinforced import incentives, with the Hungarian-German day-ahead differential expanding to €13.68/MWh. This encouraged higher commercial flows from Western Europe through Hungary into the Balkans, helping to cap regional prices despite rising consumption.
Serbia emerged as one of the main beneficiaries of the regional flow dynamics, with SEEPEX trading more than €8/MWh below Hungary and roughly €10/MWh below Slovenia. The market continues to be increasingly shaped by cross-border flows, reinforcing Serbia’s role as one of the most interconnected trading hubs in the Western Balkans.
In Greece, strong solar generation once again drove significant price decoupling from the rest of the region, with HENEX trading at a notable discount despite elevated demand conditions. Midday pricing remained heavily suppressed by photovoltaic output, while evening peaks stayed relatively contained compared with earlier in the week.
Forward markets continued to signal tighter conditions later in the summer, with Hungarian Week 24 contracts trading around €110/MWh, Week 25 at €115/MWh, and July baseload remaining elevated near €123/MWh. Market participants are still pricing in potential heat-driven demand spikes, weaker hydro availability, and stronger thermal generation requirements during peak periods.
Fuel markets provided limited directional support to power prices, as Austrian CEGH gas traded near €49.19/MWh, while EU carbon allowances remained close to €80/t, keeping thermal generation costs elevated. Coal benchmarks softened slightly, with API2 July contracts easing to around $131.5/t amid broader commodity weakness.
Overall market fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with renewables continuing to dominate short-term price formation across Southeast Europe, while stronger wind output and sustained Central European imports into Hungary and the Balkans have kept prices under pressure. The combination of higher renewable generation, increased cross-border liquidity, and lower thermal dispatch has returned the region to a more comfortably supplied balance heading into early June.
