On April 3, day-ahead electricity prices across South-East Europe and Hungary experienced a notable decline, revealing significant disparities within the regional market. While core-linked hubs showed signs of softening, southeastern zones maintained a premium pricing structure, largely influenced by localized supply-demand dynamics and import dependencies.
The front price on Hungary’s HUPX settled at €108.30/MWh, marking a substantial drop of €27.5/MWh from the previous day, one of the sharpest declines seen in recent weeks. This trend was echoed in neighboring Slovenia and Croatia, where prices fell to €104.99/MWh and €108.90/MWh, respectively, both recording decreases exceeding €25/MWh.
In contrast, the eastern markets remained relatively stable. Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece all cleared at €129.62/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded a settlement at €122.72/MWh, preserving a premium ranging from €14–21/MWh over Hungary. Montenegro and North Macedonia also maintained prices above the HUPX benchmark at €116.23/MWh and €116.17/MWh, respectively.
This divergence indicates that the regional market is not functioning as an integrated entity but is instead fragmented due to transmission constraints and varying levels of import reliance. The observed price adjustments were driven more by wind generation increases than by a collapse in demand.
Total regional consumption fell to 34,217 MW, decreasing by 1,341 MW, attributed to milder temperatures across the region. Total generation also saw a slight dip to 33,354 MW. Notably, gas-fired output dropped sharply to 4,211 MW, down by 1,040 MW, while wind generation surged by 522 MW, reaching 5,018 MW. Hydro generation improved to 8,398 MW, which contributed to reduced marginal-cost pressures.
The generation mix reflects a temporary reduction in reliance on high-cost thermal units: hydro accounted for approximately 24%, coal for 18%, gas for 12%, wind for 15%, and nuclear for 17%, with imports making up about 6%.
The region’s structural import dependence was underscored by net imports rising to 2,913 MW, an increase of 709 MW. Flows from core regions like Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose significantly to reach 4,524 MW, up by 1,095 MW .
This situation presents crucial insights for market participants; the price decline was not indicative of oversupply but rather improved access to imported power coupled with reduced thermal generation needs. The southeastern premium continued due to these markets’ higher dependency on imports compared to their core counterparts.
The spread between Hungarian prices and those in Germany widened to €23.67/MWh despite Hungarian prices falling. This suggests that Hungary continues to face congestion pricing and regional balancing costs.
The intraday price fluctuations further illustrate market volatility; Hungary recorded minimum hourly prices as low as €3.0/MWh and highs up to €175.6/MWh due to solar-induced midday compression followed by steep evening ramp pricing. Slovenia exhibited similar trends with lows around €1.7/MWh and highs exceeding €135/MWh.
The structural integrity of Romania’s market is evident as it maintained higher minimum prices near €92/MWh, reflecting tighter system conditions compared to its neighbors.
The forward pricing landscape remains supportive despite recent spot corrections; Austrian gas for May traded at €52.06/MWh—up by €1.3 day-on-day—while carbon allowances eased slightly to €71.69/t.
The persistence of elevated forward power contracts in Hungary—Week 15 at €99.50/MWh and Cal-26 at €113.50/MWh—indicates that market sentiment does not view current spot declines as indicative of a broader regime shift but rather as temporary adjustments within an overall tight framework.
The firm coal forwards also reinforce this narrative with API2 trading at €119/t for May-26 and €124.5/t for Q3-26.
A closer look at cross-border flow data reveals Romania, Serbia, and Greece remained net importers on this day; Romania faced the largest deficit at approximately -1,073 MW followed closely by Serbia at -651 MW while Hungary remained slightly import-dependent at around -191 MW despite its closer connections to core supply networks.
This ongoing reliance on imports is pivotal in understanding why southeastern prices have resisted convergence with those in Hungary even amid broader bearish trends across the region.
A rise in temperatures is forecasted across South-East Europe over the coming days—with Hungary approaching 14°C and Romania nearing 15°C—which should further diminish heating demand and maintain downward pressure on consumption levels.
The immediate trading environment appears asymmetrical; core-linked hubs such as Hungary are likely more responsive to bearish influences like increased wind generation and lower demand compared to Romania or Bulgaria where structural premiums are expected unless there is a significant improvement in local generation or import availability.
This session reflects a rebalancing market rather than one undergoing deterioration; wind production alongside milder weather catalyzed price reductions while ongoing structural constraints continue shaping pricing behaviors throughout South-East Europe.
The next directional shifts in pricing will depend significantly on whether lower gas burn can be sustained amid high wind output and robust cross-border flows; if conditions remain favorable, further declines in HUPX may be anticipated while any disruptions could see a swift return of higher clearing levels across the region.
