The South-East European power market has witnessed a notable rebound in day-ahead electricity prices as the new trading week commenced. This increase can be attributed to a recovery in demand coupled with a marked decline in renewable energy generation across the region, particularly impacting the southern and eastern Balkan markets where structural tightness remains a critical factor in price dynamics.
Day-ahead baseload prices surged to 71.24 €/MWh in Serbia, positioning SEEPEX as the highest-priced market in the area. Greece and Albania followed closely, with prices at 70.35 €/MWh and 70.29 €/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, Montenegro registered a price of 64.99 €/MWh, while Bulgaria and Romania settled at 62.08 €/MWh and 60.35 €/MWh, respectively. In contrast, Central European markets displayed significantly lower prices, with Hungary at 47.25 €/MWh, Croatia at 36.04 €/MWh, and Slovenia at just 29.16 €/MWh, highlighting an ongoing north-south pricing divergence.
The scale of the price rebound was substantial, with increases of +39.2% day on day in Greece, +30.9% in Bulgaria, +29.5% in Serbia, and +29.2% in Romania. These figures indicate that the tightening conditions are systemic throughout the Balkan region rather than confined to specific markets, though Hungary’s more modest rise of +13.0% reinforces its status as the relative price floor.
This price escalation is largely driven by a significant deterioration in the regional power balance, with total consumption climbing to 28,701 MW, an increase of 1,377 MW. In stark contrast, total generation fell sharply to 25,292 MW, down by 2,694 MW. This widening gap necessitated increased reliance on imports, which rose to a total net of 2,592 MW, reflecting an increase of 561 MW day on day. Notably, inflows from Austria and Slovakia reached 3,210 MW, up by 554 MW.
The tightening supply situation was exacerbated by declines across various generation sources: wind output decreased by 855 MW, solar by 430 MW, and hydro by 354 MW. Even thermal generation saw reductions, with coal output down by 253 MW and gas by 178 MW. This comprehensive drop in supply coincided with recovering demand levels, resulting in heightened pricing across day-ahead markets.
The role of renewables has been particularly crucial; forecasted solar generation fell to just 1,842 MW, while wind output dropped to 3,502 MW. Such reductions eliminated considerable low-cost generation from the system at a time when price formation is sensitive to marginal changes in supply—especially during transitional weather periods—leading directly to increased clearing prices.
The position of Serbia within this pricing landscape is noteworthy; trading at 71.24 €/MWh, SEEPEX is approximately 24 €/MWh higher than Hungary’s rates. This discrepancy underscores the structural tightness within both Serbian and broader Balkan markets. Cross-border flow data indicates Serbia’s deep integration into regional balancing efforts—importing from Hungary and Romania while exporting towards Kosovo—resulting in amplified price volatility during periods of constrained supply.
The dynamics between regional spreads further illustrate market segmentation: the spread between Hungary and Germany narrowed to 44.21 €/MWh, indicating some convergence toward Western European pricing standards; however, the spread between Hungary and Greece widened significantly to –23.10 €/MWh due to tighter conditions prevalent in southern Balkans.
This divergence continues to shape trading strategies across the region as Hungary serves as a more liquid hub with lower prices compared to structurally tighter markets like Greece and Serbia.
The forward markets have shown more tempered responses; Hungarian baseload forwards experienced slight increases with Week 15 priced at 99.50 €/MWh and Week 16 at 114.50€/ MWh.
No significant movements were detected within fuel markets contributing to this day-ahead spike: Austrian gas remained stable at 52.06€/ MWh while Greek gas held steady at 51€/ MWh.
This week’s intraday price profiles have underscored ongoing volatility trends; Hungarian prices recorded negative values during off-peak hours reaching –171.6€/ MWh while peak prices soared above 180€/ MWh.
A broader macroeconomic backdrop continues to support this volatility: European gas prices have recently surpassed 600$/1,000 m³ for the first time since early 2021 due to geopolitical tensions impacting LNG supplies.
This current rebound should not be viewed as a definitive bullish trend but rather as symptomatic of underlying fragility within regional power balances that remain heavily reliant on imports amid fluctuating renewable outputs.
The immediate outlook suggests continued tightness within southern Balkan systems while Hungary remains comparatively softer; however, any recovery in renewable output may compress spreads and ease pricing across these markets moving forward.
