Southeast Europe’s Week 24 electricity balance showed that renewables are now powerful enough to reshape regional prices, but not yet sufficient to remove the need for flexible capacity. Wind and solar generation rose by 518.6 GWh, or 16.6%, reaching 3.64 TWh. That increase helped offset a 4.6% rise in regional demand and pushed most day-ahead markets lower.
Wind was the stronger weekly driver, rising 28.1% to 1.40 TWh. Solar generation increased 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. Türkiye was the standout contributor, with total variable RES output jumping 67.1%, driven by a more than doubling of wind production. Serbia also posted a strong renewable increase of 76.8%, while Hungary rose 21.2%, Bulgaria 12.8%, Romania 6.1% and Italy 6.1%.
The price response was visible. Serbia fell to €78.22/MWh, Bulgaria to €93.58/MWh, Croatia to €92.02/MWh, Romania to €97.38/MWh and Hungary to €98.71/MWh. Renewables are no longer just a sustainability story in SEE. They are now part of the price-setting mechanism.
The complication is flexibility. Hydropower generation fell by 300.2 GWh, or 7.5%, to 3.70 TWh. That loss of flexible low-marginal-cost supply forced thermal generation higher. Total thermal output rose 8.7% to 4.52 TWh, with coal and lignite up 24.4% to 2.14 TWh. Gas-fired generation moved lower, which meant the balancing response came mainly from coal and lignite.
This creates a clear investment signal. The value in SEE is shifting from pure renewable megawatts toward dispatchable and flexible systems. BESS, pumped storage, hydro flexibility, demand response, portfolio management and cross-border capacity will become increasingly important. Solar can suppress midday prices, but the evening ramp still has to be managed. Wind can reduce average prices, but forecasting and imbalance exposure become more valuable.
The region’s next energy transition phase will be defined by the ability to convert renewable output into firm commercial value. Projects that combine generation with storage, grid deliverability, flexible offtake or strong trading capability will be better placed than projects relying only on installed capacity.
