The Week 24 electricity balance in Southeast Europe showed two systems operating at once. Renewables capped market prices during a period of rising demand, while thermal plants covered the supply gap left by weaker hydropower.
Wind and solar output increased strongly. Regional variable renewable generation rose 16.6% to 3.64 TWh, with wind up 28.1% to 1.40 TWh and solar up 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. This helped soften day-ahead prices across most SEE markets, even as electricity consumption increased 4.6% to 15.85 TWh.
Hydro moved lower. Regional hydropower generation fell 7.5% to 3.70 TWh, led by Türkiye’s 229 GWh decline and Bulgaria’s 42.9 GWh reduction. Hydro weakness matters because it removes flexible generation that can respond to load changes and evening demand.
Thermal plants filled the gap. Total thermal output rose 8.7% to 4.52 TWh, with coal and lignite up 24.4% to 2.14 TWh. Gas-fired generation declined 2.4%, meaning the balancing response came mainly from coal rather than gas. Türkiye, Italy and Serbia led the increase in coal-fired output.
This creates an important distinction for market participants. Renewables are increasingly powerful in price formation, but they are not yet replacing the need for dispatchable capacity. In weeks with weaker hydro, coal and lignite can still return quickly to the margin, particularly in Türkiye, Serbia and parts of the Balkans.
The regional price data confirm the dual effect. Serbia dropped to €78.22/MWh, Bulgaria to €93.58/MWh and Croatia to €92.02/MWh, while Italy remained high at €123.17/MWh because demand and import dependence kept the market tighter. The week’s electricity balance was cheaper, but not structurally lighter in thermal dependence.
