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Region: Mixed performance in SEE electricity markets amidst fluctuating prices and demand

In Week 36 of 2024, the electricity markets in Southeast Europe (SEE) experienced varied performance compared to the previous week. While prices in Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia and Turkey saw a slight decline, other countries reported increases. The reduction in demand led to lower prices in some markets, whereas decreased renewable energy production contributed to higher prices elsewhere.

Specifically, Hungary and Serbia experienced the most significant percentage increases in electricity prices, rising by 5.75% and 5.08%, respectively. Romania and Italy also saw price increases. Conversely, Turkey saw the largest decrease in prices, falling by 2.79%, while Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia recorded only marginal declines.

In Central Europe, weekly average spot electricity prices were higher than in Week 35. This surge was driven by rising gas prices and supply risks. Prices ranged from €82 to €141/MWh, with Slovenia being the most expensive market at €140.9/MWh (down 3.57% from Week 35), followed by Slovakia at €130.28/MWh. France offered the lowest prices in Central Europe at €82.34/MWh, a 4.29% increase from the previous week.

As September began, European weekly averages hovered around €120/MWh. Prices varied from €82.34/MWh in France to €158.90/MWh in Romania. In the Iberian Peninsula, electricity prices were high, with Portugal at €95.22/MWh and Spain at €94.04/MWh.

In southern Europe, all SEE countries except Turkey had prices above €100/MWh. These high prices, double those seen in May, were attributed to ongoing grid issues in Southeast Europe, including Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Greece, and Hungary. Despite the end of summer heat waves, which had previously increased regional consumption, high prices persisted. Prices ranged from €65 to €159/MWh, with Turkey having the lowest weekly average at €65.70/MWh. Italy was the second cheapest at €139.74/MWh, while Romania had the highest average at €158.90/MWh, up by 4.48% from Week 35. Hungary followed with an average price of €156.06/MWh, a 5.75% increase.

Electricity demand in SEE countries decreased by 1.56% compared to Week 35, totaling 16,837.72 GWh. This decline was due to lower temperatures in the mornings and evenings, despite daytime temperatures remaining near 30°C. Hungary and Croatia saw the largest percentage decreases in demand, with drops of 10.12% and 6.14%, respectively, followed by Romania at 4.87%. Bulgaria and Greece also experienced declines of 3.78% and 3.18%.

Output from variable renewables in SEE decreased by 5.1% to 2,476.56 GWh due to weakened wind speeds and reduced solar output. Wind generation fell to 1,125.10 GWh, with Greece and Bulgaria seeing the largest decreases. Solar output dropped by 7.5% to 1,351.47 GWh, with declines in Hungary, Croatia, Turkey, and Italy, while Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria saw increases.

Hydropower output remained stable, with a slight 0.38% increase to 2,427.23 GWh. Italy and Bulgaria were the exceptions, with increases of 8.85% and 2.49%, respectively, while other countries, including Croatia, Romania, Greece, Turkey, and Hungary, saw decreases.

Thermal power generation was relatively stable, rising by 0.79% to 8,922.00 GWh. Coal-fired generation increased by 0.68% to 3,741.91 GWh, and gas-fired generation rose by 0.88% to 5,180.09 GWh. Turkey saw decreases in both coal and gas-fired generation, while Bulgaria, Italy, and Greece experienced increases in coal and gas generation.

Net electricity imports in the SEE region fell by 12.03% to 1,507.81 GWh. Romania and Serbia saw the largest percentage decreases in net imports, down by 58.27% and 16.07%, respectively. Greece, Croatia, and Italy experienced increases in imports, while Turkey shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, registering 12.12 GWh in imports. Bulgaria reversed its position from importing to exporting electricity during this week.

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