Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic has indicated that the forthcoming transaction between Hungarian energy company MOL and Russian firm GazpromNeft, involving the sale of a majority stake in Serbian oil company NIS, is anticipated to positively influence the operations of the JANAF pipeline in the short term. However, he also emphasized the need for ongoing discussions with MOL to clarify the long-term implications for energy supply and infrastructure, particularly regarding the Rijeka refinery.
The backdrop to this deal includes the expansion of US sanctions in February 2025, which targeted approximately 250 legal entities, including NIS, predominantly owned by GazpromNeft. This development has severely impacted the Pancevo refinery in Serbia, where over 90% of crude oil is transported via JANAF from Omisalj before reaching Serbian markets.
Efforts by Croatia and its allies to postpone these sanctions until early October were ultimately unsuccessful. Consequently, NIS found itself unable to receive non-Russian crude oil through JANAF due to its ownership structure. This situation has raised concerns about supply continuity for Serbian refineries reliant on this pipeline.
Plenkovic noted that Serbia had been aware of potential risks associated with NIS’s ownership and had received advisories to restructure its ownership to mitigate such vulnerabilities. Following extensive negotiations, GazpromNeft’s decision to divest its stake in NIS to MOL—potentially with other partners—aims to extricate NIS from the sanctions framework, thereby reopening avenues for non-Russian crude flows through JANAF.
While this strategic shift may provide immediate benefits, Plenkovic acknowledged that the long-term effects remain uncertain. The Prime Minister was queried about how MOL’s expanded role in Serbia might impact the Rijeka refinery, where MOL holds a controlling interest through INA; he indicated that this matter would require further dialogue.
He also pointed out Croatia’s limited influence as a minority shareholder in INA during recent energy crises. Reflecting on past strategies, he suggested that decisions regarding INA’s share sales might have been approached differently under current conditions.
Additionally, Plenkovic mentioned that the government had previously conducted a valuation of INA and made an offer for MOL’s stake, which was declined. Given recent developments, renewed negotiations with MOL and the Hungarian government will be essential to secure continued operations at Rijeka refinery—a facility capable of meeting nearly all of Croatia’s crude oil requirements. Currently, there are no signs indicating an imminent risk to refinery operations.
